agreement or its politicians would revert to their usual squabbles with unpredictable results. But that is for Pakistanis to decide; there is nothing India can do to help or would do to hinder.

At the same time some implications of the positive developments have become a cause for concern for New Delhi, and understandably so. In the first place, the use of the expression 'Af-Pak', largely by America, itself suggests which way the American policy is going. Repeatedly, President Barack Obama has declared that his problem in Afghanistan is Pakistan, because the war on terror cannot be won until the Taliban and Al Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan's tribal lands on the Afghan border are eliminated. Hence, 'Af-Pak' has become a new geostrategic entity.

So far, so good, but the problem is that the new expression is an abbreviation of Obama's original idea that the issue really extends to, in his own words, 'Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kashmir, India and Iran'. As a result of vigorous Indian protests, usually but not always in private, the reference to India was dropped later. The eager-beaver American diplomat, Richard Holbrooke, was thus designated Special Envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan only, though he has visited New Delhi more than once.

Even so, nothing deterred Holbrooke to take up India-Pakistan relations and Kashmir with the Indian Foreign Secretary, Shivshankar Menon, during the latter's official visit to Washington. Holbrooke's immediate suggestion was that India should withdraw its troops from the Pakistan border, as a worthwhile 'initiative' to resume the interrupted peace process. He added that an eventual settlement of the Kashmir issue would change the situation materially all over the subcontinent.

Holbrooke may have had his compulsions to speak the way he did. For, Pakistani leaders, both civilian and military, have been telling him that Pakistan cannot move any soldier from the Indian border to the Afghan one until its security concerns in relation to India were adequately addressed. But, to his surprise he received a mouthful from Menon. The foreign secretary told the U.S. special envoy that India was forced to move its troops close to the border because of the unspeakable Mumbai outrage. It was therefore for Pakistan to restore the earlier situation by punishing the perpetrators and masterminds of the horrific Mumbai crime, and by dismantling the terrorist infrastructure within Pakistan and in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. With great subtlety Menon also conveyed the message that South Asia was not the Balkans where Holbrooke could broker an agreement by hectoring the representatives of various Balkan countries. Washington has sought to deny reports on the Menon-Holbrooke conversation and even Indian officials have tried to play it down. But facts are facts.

Secondly, three other factors have aggravated Indian apprehensions about what the U.S., with prodding from Pakistan, might do next and what might yet happen within Pakistan. The first is the reality that the Pakistani crisis got resolved and Zardari retreated from catastrophic concentration only because of the pressure from America and the army. It was General Ashfaq Kayani who read out the Riot Act to the recalcitrant Pakistani president. The firmly embedded doctrine of the Pakistan Army is that India, not terrorism or anything else, is the existential threat to Pakistan. Moreover, the Pakistan Army is reluctant to take action against the Pashtun populations on both sides of the Pak-Afghan border because nearly 20 per of the army itself is Pashtun.

The new Obama strategy on Afghanistan is the second worrying factor. It is still in the making but its contours are broadly known. Obama may have said on the campaign trail that the war in Afghanistan is the one that America 'must win'. But he now believes that, despite the surge, U.S. and Nato troops cannot win the war. Consequently, he wants the war to be ended in, at most two years, by confining it to fighting terrorism on both sides of Pak-Afghan border. He wants to intensify the attacks of the Taliban and the Al Qaeda, and once they are defeated, to leave. No wonder Senators McCain and Liberman have sharply criticised Obama's 'minimalist' approach.

That is where the third factor comes in. Obama has not only continued George Bush's policy of using Predator drones to strike at the sanctuaries on Pakistani territory from where the Taliban and Al Qaeda operate, but intensified it. Pakistan protests but can do nothing to stop the drone strikes that often kill civilians, and amplify the intense hatred of the U.S. sweeping across Pakistan. America's decision to extend the drone attacks also to Balochistan has caused even greater alarm and resentment.

At the same time the extremists have extended their influence and control to even greater parts of Pakistan than before. The Malakand district of Pakistan of which Swat is an integral part is a depressing case in point. The North West Frontier Province government has surrendered this idyllic area to the Pakistani Taliban. The fear not merely in India but also in Pakistan is that at the present rate the Taliban could soon engulf Islamabad, which has already witnessed the squalid Lal Masjid episode, and the attack on Sri Lankan cricketers in Lahore, which is on India's doorstep.

In Swat, only the Taliban radio functions, the government radio has been shut down. All girls' schools have been either blown up or closed.

Another matter that has disappointed India is that the U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has been to China, Japan, South Korea and Indonesia, but there has been no high-level contact with India. To an extent this is due to India's preoccupation with the elections. To make things worse, Obama has appointed to the key non-proliferation post in his administration a former Congresswoman, Ellen Tauscher, a habitual India-baiter.

Presumably to assuage Indian sentiment Obama has sent to New Delhi the new CIA chief Leon Panetta. Incidentally, Panetta, a former White House chief of staff, is the first non-professional to be made the CIA boss but his prestige is high and the president trusts him implicitly. Holbrooke, too, has made a statement to India's liking.

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