April 2010
Redefining the problem
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Mounting tensions
G Parthasarathy
 
A summer of discontent
Rahimullah Yusufzai
 
Western follies
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When dalliance didn't deliver
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Darjeeling: A Himalayan Splendour
 
Realignment on cards
David Watts
 
Asserting their rights
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Lady Pamela, daughter of Lord Mountbatten, remembers India in some very intimate details
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April 2010

Pakistan

A summer of discontent

With the spectre of militancy still looming large, political parties at odds over issues and a huge power crisis threatening industrial activity, the country is in for some heated times ahead.

By Rahimullah Yusufzai

MILITARY MINDS AT WORK: Pakistan's Army Chief General Kayani (left) and his host General Petraeus watch the U.S. Air Force flight team perform in Tampa, Florida, March 22. The outcome of their meeting will soon be visible on the fighting fields of the Af-Pak region

At a time when a high-level Pakistan delegation comprising civil and military officials was engaged in a crucial 'strategic dialogue' with the U.S. authorities in Washington, last-minute political wrangling in the country over the proposed constitutional reforms package delayed the introduction of the 18th Amendment in parliament. And around the same time, Islamabad was under pressure to hand over the Afghan Taliban leaders it had recently arrested to Kabul and provide greater support to Afghanistan's embattled President Hamid Karzai in implementing his 'reintegration' plan aimed at persuading opposition fighters to lay down arms and join the political mainstream.

If adopted by a two-thirds majority in parliament, the constitutional amendments would largely restore the much-amended 1973 Constitution, take away powers from the President of Pakistan and empower the Prime Minister, streamline the procedure of appointment of superior court judges and rename the militancy-hit North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) in keeping with the aspirations of its majority Pashtun population. For the last nine months, a parliamentary committee comprising representatives of almost all political parties and headed by Senator Raza Rabbani of the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP) has been discussing these issues and trying to reach a consensus as no single party, including the ruling coalition, is able to command two-thirds majority needed to get the law passed in the National Assembly and Senate of Pakistan.

 
 

When it did appear that a consensus was within reach, former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the PML-N, threw a spanner in the works and refused to endorse the constitutional reforms package due to difference of opinion with the PPP-led ruling coalition and other parties on the proposed method of appointment of judges and the renaming of the NWFP. On the judges' appointment, he wanted the Chief Justice of Pakistan to be the key decision-maker instead of government ministers and members of parliament. Due to opposition by his own party leaders belonging to the Hindko-speaking Hazara region of the NWFP, Nawaz Sharif also didn't want to endorse Pakhtunkhwa as the new name for the province. Pakhtunkhwa, which means the land of the Pashtuns, is the choice of President Asif Ali Zardari's PPP and its ally, the nationalist Awami National Party led by Asfandyar Wali Khan. On three occasions in the past, the provincial assembly of the NWFP had also passed resolutions demanding that the province be renamed as Pakhtunkhwa. But because the name gives an identity to only the Pashtuns and ignores other minority ethnic groups such as the Hindko-speakers, there is opposition to it in Hazara and certain other parts of the province where Sharif's PML-N has a vote-bank.

Efforts are now underway to sort out the differences between the PML-N and other parties in a bid to reach consensus on the constitutional reforms package. There could be some give-and-take on the manner of appointment of judges and renaming of the NWFP. It is possible that a compound name is chosen by adding the names Abaseen, Hazara and Khyber to Pakhtunkhwa. The names Pashtoonistan and Afghania have also been proposed as the new names for the NWFP. Without the support of PML-N and the former ruling party, PML-Q, which former president General Pervez Musharraf had set up to give a civilian façade to his military rule, it would not be possible to get the constitutional reforms package passed by the parliament. The stalemate is on account of the political rivalry and mistrust between late Benazir Bhutto's PPP, now led by her husband President Zardari, and Sharif's PML-N.

The constitutional amendments would also strip President Zardari of his vast powers, which General Musharraf had illegally and unconstitutionally acquired to distort the parliamentary system of government in Pakistan. Zardari, increasingly unpopular in Pakistan due to his corruption-tainted past and his habit of going back on his public promises, was banking on the success of the strategic dialogue with the U.S. to strengthen his position and deflect challenges to his rule. He is seen as someone close to the U.S., which had brokered the deal between Benazir Bhutto and General Musharraf and played a role in withdrawal of corruption cases against Benazir's husband, Zardari, under the controversial National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO).

However, the two-day talks in the U.S., despite tall claims by Pakistan's Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi, didn't achieve much for the country. The U.S. refused to mediate and involve itself in Pakistan's dispute with India on Kashmir and water resources. The U.S. Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, also publicly declined Islamabad's request to conclude a civil nuclear cooperation deal with Pakistan, like the one signed with India. The only positive outcome in terms of Pakistan's interest was the U.S. willingness to assist it in overcoming its energy crisis, extend more help to revive its economy and fight the so-called 'war on terror' and raise the level of the 'strategic dialogue' to the ministerial level.

This was the fourth such dialogue between the two countries, but the participation of Pakistan's Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and the importance he was given in the U.S. raised the status of the event. The General, due for retirement in November, also held separate meetings with the U.S. military officials including Admiral Mike Mullen and General David Petraeus. The decisions made in these meetings aren't known but the next moves of the Pakistan and U.S. military authorities in the Af-Pak region would be closely watched in case they have agreed to increase cooperation in tackling all the militants, whether those linked to Al Qaeda or Afghan and Pakistani Taliban.
Islamabad is under pressure from the U.S. and its allies to take on the Afghan Taliban, particularly the Haqqani network responsible for most attacks in Kabul and the so-called Quetta Shura of top Taliban figures, and dismantle their safe havens in Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence agents in a joint raid arrested the Afghan Taliban's deputy leader Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and then followed it up with the arrest of several other Taliban members to earn praise from Washington. However, the Afghan government saw the arrests as a Pakistani move to scuttle the prospects of a peace dialogue between it and the Afghan Taliban. The arrests were also viewed by critics as a Pakistani attempt to play a key role in negotiations involving the Afghan Taliban and the Afghan government and its allies on the future of Afghanistan.

However, the Afghan Taliban reiterated their opposition to talks with the U.S. and its allies or the Afghan government until the foreign forces pulled out from Afghanistan. The Taliban statement came at a time when the other main opposition group, Hezb-i-Islami of former mujahideen leader Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, changed its stance and sent a delegation to hold talks with President Hamid Karzai. Pakistan doesn't want to be bypassed, but events could overtake it. It is unclear if one-time Pakistan's favourite Hekmatyar consulted Islamabad before making the dramatic move. His Hezb-i-Islami party has broken ranks with the opposition by recognising Hamid Karzai as a legitimate president and despatching its top leaders to Kabul to meet him, his vice-president Mohammad Qasim Fahim and other government officials. It is the first time that such formal talks between an armed opposition group and the Afghan government took place. The first round of talks may not achieve a breakthrough as the U.S. and Afghan governments are unlikely to accept Hezb-i-Islami (Hekmatyar's) 15-point peace plan that calls for withdrawal of all foreign forces from Afghanistan in six months and holding of presidential and parliamentary elections under an interim government. But the fact that these talks took place was in itself an important development. Pakistan had better watch out to protect its interests in Afghanistan, more so due to its apprehensions that India had gained a foothold in the country.

The situation in Pakistan, despite recent suicide bombings in Lahore, is somewhat stabilising following the military operations last year in Swat and rest of Malakand region and South Waziristan. However, the occasional militants' inspired violence hasn't ended and adding to the worries is the political confrontation between the Zardari and Sharif camps and the power crisis that is closing down industrial and business activities and provoking the people to stage violent protests.

Violence also returned to North Waziristan and some other tribal areas in recent weeks due to renewed bombing campaigns by Pakistani military, clashes between the militants and the military and also between rival groups of militants, and the capture and slaying of people suspected of spying for the U.S. Three men were recently killed after being accused of spying for the U.S. The U.S. drone attacks in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan have increased in numbers and not many Pakistanis now bother to find out about those killed in such attacks.
The latest military action in Orakzai Agency has caused more displacement and death and destruction. The military conceded five deaths of its soldiers, including a senior officer, and injuries to another 16 in a night-time attack by militants on the army camp in Kelaya, Shna Post and Ferozkhel in Orakzai. It provoked the military to bomb the villages and forced those still remaining in this volatile place to leave. The military claimed 32 militants, including Arabs and Uzbeks, were killed in the air strikes, but bodies weren't shown to the media. More troops were being sent to the area amid fears that a full-fledged military action was now on the anvil in Orakzai Agency.

With an end to militancy and violence not yet in sight and due to rise in temperature following the advent of summer months, made tough by long hours of power cuts, Pakistan is confronted with a long summer of discontent.

 

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