The bomb blasts in Bangalore and Ahmedabad, similar to the ones that took place two months earlier in Jaipur, are believed to be the handiwork of home-grown Muslim terrorists. But speculation is rife that the instigators, whether they be the so-called 'Indian Mujahideen', the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) or some related offshoots, have been operating under the umbrella of Pakistan's notorious Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and their religious fundamentalist allies.

Add to this the renewal of cross-border firing in Kashmir and all the ingredients are present for a new bilateral standoff between New Delhi and Islamabad. No wonder the merchants of doom on either side of the border are prophesying there is worse to come where bilateral ties are concerned.

The pity of it all is that relations between the two South Asian neighbours have rarely been as good as they have in recent months. After a long period of estrangement following the dismissal of the pro-India, Benazir Bhutto-led government in 1996, links between New Delhi and Islamabad revived to a point that would have been unthinkable only months earlier. Even the old bugbear of Kashmir did not prevent the neighbours from metaphorically holding hands as they talked enthusiastically about a new future for the region.

The problem from an Indian perspective is that however well meaning the newly elected political establishment in Islamabad, authority in Pakistan is now so fractured that competing warlords – both secular and religious – are free to roam the political landscape and impose their will on the population at large.

Hence the renewed importance and significance of such groups as Lashkar-e-Taybe, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HuJI). They may not be able to operate as openly as they once did in Pakistan, but that does not mean they have stopped functioning. Nor have they been blocked from activating sleeper cells or recruiting from disaffected Muslim youth who live in 'infidel' India.

Meanwhile, as friends and relatives mourn the victims of the most recent terrorist outrages, the pressure is on India's intelligence services, Intelligence Bureau (IB) and the Research Analysis Wing (RAW), to come up with some credible answers to hard questions that start with who, what, why, where and how.

At the political level the obvious question is why elements of India's hitherto largely passive and law-abiding Muslim community have suddenly become receptive to the propaganda of extremists. Does India's ruling class need to look in the mirror and ask if it is guilty of grave political misjudgments that have alienated an important minority?

As the investigation into the bomb blasts gets underway, the lazy option will be to ignore the all-important and fine details that need to be discovered about those responsible and instead place all the problems associated with India's terrorism at Islamabad's door. This may be a convenient way to deal with the problem, but it will be future generations in both India and Pakistan who will have to pay the price for this type of short-term strategy.

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