asianaffairs-August 2008

India's big vote

Mandate to move on

Having notched up a convincing win in the trust vote, Manmohan Singh's Congress party and its new-found allies are fast forwarding the nuclear deal and economic reforms that the Marxist Left had effectively stalled so far. By Inder Malhotra

SAYING IT WITH FLOWERS: congress president and UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi greets Prime Minister Manmohan Singh July 23. After the floor test Singh has emerged from the shadows of an ‘accidental politician’ to being the ‘man of the moment’

To the surprise of friends and foes alike, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government has won the vote of confidence in Parliament by a comfortable majority of 275 votes to 256. Almost everybody had expected that the Big Vote in Lok Sabha (lower House of Parliament) would be – as Wellington had said of Waterloo – 'a damned close-run thing'. Compared with the single vote that brought down the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government a decade ago, the prime minister's margin of victory is indeed 'convincing', to use his own expression. At a time of great and growing fragmentation of polity, the government's stability is surely to be welcomed. But there is a depressing flip side to the situation.

 
 

During the two-day highly acrimonious debate, it became clear that democratic and parliamentary norms in India, willfully and brazenly eroded over the years, have now reached their nadir. Before and during the debate charges flew fast and thick that the ruling establishment – belonging to the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) – was indulging in 'horse-trading', offering Opposition MPs Rs. 25 crores each or other inducements to 'change sides' or even abstain from voting. The Congress and its newfound ally, the Samajwadi Party, reciprocated the charges.

The screaming match reached a crescendo when three members of the principal Opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), marched into the House, flashing bundles of currency notes and alleging that these were the first installment of bribes to them. A TV channel was said to have recorded the tarnished transaction. It has made the CD available to Speaker Somnath Chatterjee who has ordered an investigation, despite angry denials by those towards whom the accusing fingers has been pointed. Nothing of the kind had ever happened in Parliament before, not even during its worst bedlams; the ugly scenes rivaled those in the most melodramatic movies from Bollywood. Another inquiry the Speaker ordered was into charges that the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), the government's premier investigative agency, was being used to 'harass and browbeat' Opposition members.

Incidentally, the Speaker himself is also in trouble. He was elected to Parliament on the ticket of Left Front's principal party, CPI (M), though after his unanimous election to the chair he considered himself 'above politics'. So it was that he defied the party's directive to step down after the Left Front had parted company with the UPA, and insisted on presiding over the confidence debate. For this, the CPI (M) politburo has 'expelled' him. The choice before him therefore is to either disregard the party and remain Speaker or quietly quit his office.

What happened on the morning after the crucial vote was more alarming. Leaders of all three major Opposition parties – L. K. Advani, the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP, the Marxist leader Prakash Karat who heads the Left Front that withdrew support to the UPA and precipitated the confidence vote, and Mayawati, formidable chief minister of the most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, who has suddenly built a niche for herself in national politics –  held separate press conferences but their message was the same: The government's victory in the vote was the result of bribery, corruption and cheating, and therefore unacceptable. They announced a countrywide agitation against the ruling combination's 'immorality' and on other issues that would go on until the next election.

Worse, there was trouble within the aggrieved parties, especially within the BJP. Eight members of the Hindu right-wing party once envied for its exemplary discipline, had broken ranks and voted with the government. Four others had abstained. Advani declared at his press conference that these renegades had 'betrayed' the party because of the lure of money. But there is plenty of evidence to show that some of them had been defiant of the party leadership because of their disgruntlement for quite some time. The matter did not end there. Angry BJP mobs across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Karnataka attacked the homes and offices of their colleagues who had voted against the party, and tried to burn the buildings and beat up the 'renegades'. More lawlessness is planned.

Unfazed by all this and encouraged by parliamentary support, the government has made up its mind to push hard the India-United States civilian nuclear deal, the issue over which the Left Front had parted company with the UPA after four years of partnership and precipitated the confidence vote. The parliamentary debate – which was so rumbustious that the prime minister could not deliver his speech in reply to the discussion and had to release it later – was also focused on the nuclear deal. The word from Washington is encouraging. There is bipartisan consensus on hastening the Congressional approval of the Indo-U.S. 123 Agreement as soon as the Nuclear Suppliers' Group has suitably changed its guidelines. Remarkably, in uncharacteristically strong language Manmohan Singh said that the Left Front had wanted him to be its 'bonded slave'. The Left Front held its first anti-nuclear deal rally on July 23 in Mumbai (Bombay), and has planned a series of protests across the country in coming weeks. A senior Marxist leader declared that the Manmohan Singh government had won 'a battle, not the war'.

The government's second priority is to see through 'essential economic reform' – including the reforms in the insurance and banking sectors – which were held up for years because of the Left Front's stiff opposition. Both Finance Minister P. Chidambaram and Commerce Minister Kamal Nath have said so publicly.

Thirdly, now that the government has fortified itself with parliamentary support, it is likely to delay the Lok Sabha election until April-May when it is due in any case. There are some Congress party strategists who think that there may be some advantage in synchronising the parliamentary poll with state assembly elections in five states in December. But the majority view, within the Congress and even more so among its allies in the UPA, is that the Lok Sabha election should not be held even a day before it is absolutely necessary.

It needs to be added that the result of the Big Vote in Parliament has altered not only the dynamics of national politics but also the equations and balance of power within the Congress party and the UPA. Congress president Sonia Gandhi remains the most powerful individual. But Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's authority and prestige have greatly increased. Those who had tended to dismiss him as an 'accidental politician' and 'appointed Prime Minister' – more a 'managing director' of the company than its chairman – have had to change their view. They are also impressed because he has shown himself to be much more savvy politically than had appeared. What seems to have brought about the transformation was his decision to demand of the Congress president that either the party should fully back him and his resolve to push through the nuclear deal or find itself a new prime minister. The question is why did he not take such a firm stand last year?

The writer is a former editor of 'The Times of India'.

Lines That Linger After the Vote…

'There are some people in the country who do not want India to catch up with China… They do not want India to be ahead of China. Some people want China to become a superpower.'

Finance Minister P. Chidambaram

'Today I speak as an Indian, not as a Congressman. We need to resolve the country's problems together. Fear should not be our guide; we need to act with courage… The difference between a powerful country and others is that a powerful country does not think about how others impact it but how it can impact the rest of the world.'

Congress general secy. Rahul Gandhi

'Leftist ideology is not Indian. It's from a foreign country. Our ideology is the ideology of Gandhi Baba… Everybody wants to be PM. Advaniji is trying. Mayawati, Mulayam Singhji want to be PM. Even I, Lalu Prasad, want to be PM.'

Railway Minister Lalu Prasad

'I am a Muslim and I am an Indian. And to me they are the same thing. I'm for the deal… The real enemies of Indian Muslims are poverty, hunger and unemployment as they're enemies of the poor in the country.'

J&K National Conference president Omar Abdullah making an impassioned plea in support of India-U.S. civilian nuclear deal

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