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August 2010
The Kabul Conference
Spurring confidence in Karzai?
With a resurgent Taliban threatening Afghan security and sowing the seeds of jihad against India, the Kabul Conference must offer reintegration and reassurance rather than reconciliation.
By G Parthasarathy
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Worst-kept secret: it is well-known that huge proportions of western aid to Afghanistan go to contractors and consultants from donor states. |
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A visibly satisfied Indian diplomat returning from the International Conference in Kabul on July 20 was asked what made him so happy. He replied that with David Miliband no longer around and the British Government represented by its new Foreign Secretary William Hague, the Conference was very different from the earlier Conference in London, where Mr Miliband had foisted an agenda on the international community of virtual surrender to a resurgent Taliban, with calls for 'reconciliation' with the Taliban leadership. Taliban rule in Afghanistan had made the country a breeding ground for Islamic radicals intent on waging jihad against India, which had seen Taliban leaders colluding with the Pakistani hijackers of an Indian Airlines Aircraft in December 1999. In more recent times, the Taliban's 'Haqqani Network' based in the tribal area of North Waziristan in Pakistan has killed Indian diplomats, engineers and workers in attacks all across Afghanistan. It has also joined hands in operations in Southern Afghanistan with the Lahore-based Lashkar e Taiba, which executed the Mumbai terrorist attack in November 2008. New Delhi has no desire to see a resurgent Taliban facilitated in returning to power in Afghanistan.
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The Kabul Conference was held at a time when, following what he perceived as American attempts to undermine his authority and credibility, President Karzai met Pakistan Army Chief Ashfaq Pervez Kayani and its Intelligence Chief Lt. General Shuja Pasha in Kabul. He reportedly sought the assistance of the Pakistani military leadership for 'reconciliation' with the North Waziristan-based 'Haqqani Network' and the Taliban political leadership led by Mullah Omar, popularly known as the 'Quetta Shura'. Alarmed by President Karzai's hurried quest for 'reconciliation' just after he had sacked his pro-western Intelligence Chief Amrolllah Saleh and sidelined his well respected Army Chief General Bismillah Khan, both known to have deep suspicions of Pakistani intentions, America's new military commander in Afghanistan General David Petraeus, together with Senator Carl Levin, moved Washington to declare the Haqqani Network as a terrorist organization and freeze the funds of its supporters. The message to President Karzai was that while the US would show due regard to his sensitivities, it would not let him strike deals with organizations like the Haqqani network, regarded as a threat to American Security interests.
There has been deep concern in India that after President Obama's announcement last December, an emboldened Taliban will move to take over Southern Afghanistan in the event of a precipitate American withdrawal, with Afghan forces still unprepared to assume security responsibilities in erstwhile Taliban strongholds. New Delhi has, however, been reassured by the comments of NATO Secretary General Anders Rasmussen that the alliance would never allow the Taliban to topple the Afghan Government, and by clarification that the pace of the proposed transition scheduled for 2014 would be based on 'conditions and not calendars'. The Kabul conference has met most of India's concerns, stating that Afghan security forces 'should lead and conduct military operations in all provinces of Afghanistan by the end of 2014'. The Conference discarded Mr Miliband's advocacy of 'reconciliation' with the Taliban and merely endorsed the Afghan Government's 'peace and integration' programme, involving reintegrating insurgents who renounce violence, have no links to international terrorist organizations and respect the Afghan Constitution. New Delhi has urged President Karzai and the International Community to shed illusions that the Taliban leaders would presently be amenable to ending their armed insurrection, or renouncing support for international terrorism.
The confidence now reposed in President Karzai will hopefully see the introduction of effective measures by him to improve governance. President Karzai has legitimate grievances that his Government administers barely 20 per cent of the aid of western donors and it is no secret that huge proportions of such aid go to contractors and consultants from donor states. Many visitors to Afghanistan note that aid from western donors is not as cost effective as aid from Afghanistan's neighbours, India and Iran. It remains to be seen if, with aid donors now agreeing to allow 50 per cent of their aid to be channelled through the Afghanistan Government, President Karzai will deliver on his promises of good governance. More importantly, a huge amount of work needs to be done to improve the training and motivation of Afghan security forces. As things stand, they are very poorly equipped, even more poorly trained and, vitally, they lack motivation. The Afghan National Army needs, at the very least, to be equipped with greater firepower, including artillery and access to armoured personnel carriers and helicopters, to give it an edge over the Taliban.
New Delhi is all too aware of the possibility that adverse domestic reaction could force the US and its allies to withdraw leaving their task unfinished. India is heavily dependent on Iran for access to landlocked Afghanistan, because of Pakistan's refusal to allow transit through its territory of Indian aid shipments and exports. Contacts with Iran, Russia and Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours are likely to be stepped up to keep options open, and to back those who would oppose Taliban control in the event of a premature NATO withdrawal. New Delhi is also considering suggestions that the US and Russia should convene a Conference of Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours together with Pakistan, China, India, Iran and Saudi Arabia, where measures could be agreed upon to ensure that Afghanistan's territory will not be used against any third country and that in return, its neighbours will give internationally binding guarantees not to interfere in Afghanistan's internal affairs.top | |
