Musharraf’s Adieu
Goodbye, General; Good Luck, Mr President

With President Musharraf at the helm as the ex-officio Supreme Commander, Pakistan looks set to pass through the birth pangs of democracy once again, comments Ashok K. Behuria

  Finally, General Pervez Musharraf decided to shed his army uniform, his ‘second skin’. His anxiety on 26 November 2007, while he was receiving the farewell guard-of-honour, was manifest to the world at large. The media-savvy, flamboyant, and cheerful General looked unusually grim, unsmiling, unsure. The uncertainties of civilian presidency must have been weighing heavy on his mind.
   What is in store for Musharraf and Pakistan? For eight years he carried on, convinced that he was the best face of Pakistan — enlightened and moderate. His critics would point out that while saying that he wanted genuine democracy he went about emasculating every institution that would strengthen democracy; that like all military rulers before him he was surrounded by a bunch of turncoats who preferred to swim with him.
   Even so, he commanded almost 52% popularity ratings in February this year. The ratings fell thereafter, when he suspended the Chief Justice of the country. For dictators, the threat always comes from unexpected quarters. This time it was a top judge who was sworn to office by the provisional constitutional order issued by Musharraf in 2000.
   Confusing tutored democracy for genuine democracy, and overseeing the elections in 2002, General Musharraf was sure he had brought democracy to Pakistan. When the western media called him Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde in early November 2007, he retorted in his interview with BBC Radio 4, ‘Did I go mad? Or suddenly, my personality changed?’ He carried on his verbal spat with Emily Wax of the Washington Post. ‘If I am a dictator, I don’t know what kind of dictator I am. I am the strongest believer in democracy. I brought democracy to Pakistan and I still believe in it.’ Later, in his interaction with The Telegraph, he asked unbelievingly, ‘Who is trying to derail the political and democratic process? Am I? Or is it some elements in the Supreme Court — the Chief Justice and his coterie … and now some elements in the political field?’
   But give the devil his due. One has to just watch his interaction with Adnan Kakakhel, a student of the infamous Binori mosque, still available on YouTube, to see how convincingly he takes on the arguments and allegations levelled against him by his Islamist opponents. He did make an effort to project an enlightened face of Islam in Pakistan in his own tentative way. On the other hand, he would not move with as much force against the Islamist forces as he did against his non-Islamist opponents. He was perhaps aware of the nuisance value of the Islamist constituency and sought to take them on in philosophical debates rather than use the coercive might of the state. In a way this was inevitable, given his weak popular base and his image of a military ruler ready to oblige the US in its efforts at hunting down Islamist extremists. This was the familiar Allah-Army-America syndrome having its usual run in Pakistan politics.
   Even so, it is true that he was (and still is) a moderate. He was perhaps the only Pakistani dictator who gave the media a long rope. It is another thing that the media may have struggled under self-censorship, unwilling to take on the army head on. Yet, criticism of Musharraf’s policies in the print and audiovisual media was unusually vituperative in the experience of Pakistan. It is true that he targeted Dawn and The News at a certain stage, but he did allow the media to criticise his government. Much of the dressing down of his government during the pro-Judiciary lawyers’ movement was possible because of his liberal policies. He did err towards the end and imposed restrictions on the eve of sacking the judges of the Supreme Court on 3 November 2007, but it emerged later that he was struggling to secure his civilian Presidency, rather than his uniform, from judicial activism.
   Now that Musharraf has chosen to start the second phase of democracy by doffing his uniform, it is useful to speculate about the shape of things to come. President Musharraf is likely to retain overall control of the army. He may have sold it to the army top brass he has selected carefully over the years that he is their best bet in the Presidential capacity. It seems he would be able to hold his ground in case of a hung House, a scenario most likely.
   With Nawaz Sharif back in Pakistan, Musharraf has ensured that the electorate in Punjab will be divided between the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) led by Nawaz Sharif and PML-Qaid. Benazir Bhutto of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) may sweep Sindh (61 seats) and make some dent in Balochistan (14 seats), but Punjab (148 seats) and NWFP (North West Frontier Province, 35 seats) may elude her. In NWFP, the religious forces may do well. None of the parties, thus, may command a majority. This may give Musharraf an opportunity to enable a pliant coalition and drag on as the undisputed civilian President.
   At the same time, it cannot be ruled out that the political forces come together and pose a challenge to Musharraf’s authority before the elections. His successor, General Ashfaq Kiyani, has already said that the army will always have to keep the people’s wishes in view while ensuring the security of Pakistan. He may be seeking to assure the people at large that the army will allow the transition to take place. Underlying such an assurance is also an admission that if people challenge the army this time round, the army may not be so assertive as it was under Musharraf’s command.
   In that event, the army may oblige Musharraf and help him in taking some extra-constitutional step again in the short term. But keeping long-term interests in mind, the army may opt to revert to civilian rule and control the levers of power from behind the scenes. In that case, an assertive Musharraf could be the first casualty.
   Transition from military to civilian rule is never smooth. The army in Pakistan may have been discredited by the wrong choices General Musharraf made since the beginning of this year, but it is still an institution that the people of Pakistan would not like to see marginalised. With President Musharraf at the helm — as the ex-officio Supreme Commander if not the Chief of Army Staff — the army may still resurrect itself, if the so-called democratic political forces flounder again and seek to use the army either as a prop for coming to power or as an instrument to run down their opponents. Pakistan looks set to pass through the birth pangs of democracy once again.

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