The first and most profound cultural difference will be in the fact that the United States will no longer be led by a white, Anglo-Saxon male with all other elements of that society, essentially also-rans in the Asian perception, unless, of course, they happen to come from the viewer's own ethnic background.
Overall this must be seen as a plus but for many Asian societies unused to treating minorities within their own societies on anything like an equal basis, notably the xenophobic countries in East Asia, this will lead to profound unease and the one thing all of them abhor in their foreign relationships—unpredictability.
Viewed fundamentally on the colour of his skin and his minority background the election of Obama raises disquieting challenges to the governments and societies of China and Japan in particular, neither of which have democracies of a kind which could produce such a radical change.
Both countries and most of those in East Asia which have highly structured, hierarchical societies, harbour strong racial feelings as part of their national makeup which are reinforced by the reality that in South Korea and Japan the most common contact between black Americans and local people is through servicemen, a relationship which has been far from positive of late with frequent allegations of attacks on women.
Just as so many young Chinese filmmakers look to Hollywood as the home of the epitome of their craft, so minorities in Asia, who feel under-represented in their national governments, will look to the American example of what is possible—much to the discomfiture of their governments.
For that domestic reason Obama comes as something of a mixed blessing let alone the reality that his background is that of an elite, well-educated white rather than typical of the American black community who would much more likely see him as being mixed race.
But it is the unpredictability of the new scenario that will have the policy-makers and their advisers burning the midnight oil in Tokyo and Beijing. Just what is Obama's agenda and whom does he really represent? Governments in Delhi, Tokyo and Beijing, all have known exactly where they are with Republican administrations even though they have often proved potentially quite hostile. It was the hardline Richard Nixon who made the big breakthrough in relations between the U.S. and China; will the new Democrat administration turn protectionist and how will it approach human rights and the promotion of democracy? If America elects to turn inward that could be disastrous for Chinese industry. Will the new president's personal and Democratic Party experience lead to his putting a greater emphasis on this side of the relationship?
Tokyo is still reeling from Washington's abnegation of the centrepiece of its core beliefs—the nuclear pact with India, which overturns decades of international certainty that any attempts by newcomers to join the nuclear club would be severely constrained. Japan's nuclear nightmare at the hands of the American military now stands for nothing as a moral example and a horrible lesson to the world while Tokyo's nuclear abstinence as a template for international behaviour is worthless in a neighbourhood which already has one nuclear power, one with pressing ambitions to join the club and a number of others, including Japan, who may now see no alternative to developing the capability without further delay.
Obama's attitude towards the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan appears to be clear enough, at least on the basis of what has been said on the campaign trail, but his views will be subject to heavy influence from the military before and after he actually takes office. The defence establishment will not necessarily be taking an expansionist line given the stress on their personnel and resources but the new leader's attitude to closer nuclear and military ties with India remains unclear as does his view of America's military presence in East Asia.
That will likely be dictated by his attitude to China and whether he chooses to see Beijing as a military and economic threat, as has the outgoing administration for much of the time that it has been in office.
Whether or not he yet realises it, his attitude to China and that of the United States as a whole will define the nature of his leadership on the foreign policy front and his legacy.
China and the United States are now united in an economic relationship, which is vital to both parties. America's high-tech financial engineering skills are now in shreds and its manufacturing capability hollowed out and fled abroad, to China among other places. China, for its part, is faced with the possibility of serious social unrest as the factories that have been churning out goods for the West close down and their workers flee from the relatively prosperous coastal cities to the much poorer interior where the prospects for new employment are virtually nil. Neither China nor the United States has anything to be gained from conflict on the economic, military or political fronts.
Though Washington chooses not to draw attention to the fact, American consumers could not have enjoyed their creditoholic lifestyle these past years had the Chinese administration not been willing to continue buying American dollar bonds. Those investments have now reached the truly fabulous sum of $585 billion in U.S. treasuries. China has been underwriting America's debt and the immediate need is for Beijing to keep on doing just that, especially at a time when dollar investments are of increasingly dubious value.
With nearly two trillion (correct trillion) dollars in foreign reserves, the highest in the world, China has the capability to come to the aid of the United States with its financial muscle while Washington must see to it that it helps China to develop its interior and the financial and service sector skills its needs to help stabilise its society.
The two nations need each other to escape from the present impasse.
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