asianaffairs-Feb 2008
                                               
                                               Africa
Kenya’s descent into chaos

The debacle in Kenya may dry up humanitarian aid to Africa as a whole, as donors witness the ultimate worthlessness of their assistance, comments David Watts

  Kenya’s descent into chaos is a tragedy not only for the people of that country but for the continent as a whole.
In the short space of time since the elections in late December the country has fallen from the status of African democratic icon to potentially just the latest in a long line of continental states that failed. But Kenya’s future has more far-reaching implications than that of a single nation.
   For many outside Africa, Kenya had earned the status of a nation that could break out of regional stereotypes: a country with a functioning democracy that had a vibrant economy, despite extensive poverty, with a strong foreign-currency earner in its tourist industry, and as a key centre for international organisations such as the United   Nations and others concerned with the region as a whole.
   All of that now stands at risk after elections that were widely seen as rigged by the ruling party under President Mwai Kibaki. The election seemed certain to result in an opposition victory for Raila Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement when, after two days of counting, the results suddenly swung in the direction of Kibaki and the final total showed him to be the victor by a suspiciously narrow margin.
   What followed were days of extensive bloodletting and violence which took a very long time to subside. In outlying regions such as Kisumu, on the shores of Lake Victoria, the country’s third-largest city and the stronghold of the opposition, tensions have remained. The trauma-tisation of the explosion of ethnic tensions resulting in hundreds of deaths will take a long time to be assuaged. The economic effects have been immediate not only for Kenya but for the big hinterland that its transport system serves.
   The country has by far the largest economy in the region and the most diversified industrial base of any nation between Cairo and the Cape. Vital to this and the neighbouring states is the coast road up from the port city of Mombasa to Nairobi which then goes on to feed the economies of Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, eastern Congo, southern Sudan and northern Tanzania, not to mention aid operations vital to Somalia, Sudan and eastern Congo. Strategically, the country has taken on an important role for the Americans in providing a solid base for operations against radical Islamists in the Horn of Africa. For that reason, Western strategists will be hoping that the unrest gets no worse.
  

  Most disturbing for those who hoped that the days of tribal African politics were drawing to a close was the realisation that much of the violence in Nairobi and Kisumu had been based on tribal rivalries, the opposition-supporting Luo taking out their frustrations on the Kikuyu and Kisii supporting the president. Much optimism had been invested in the fact that when Kibaki defeated Daniel Arap Moi in 2002 the event that appeared to mark a democratic watershed and set the course for a steady development of entrenched democracy after 24 years of repression. Those hopes have been bitterly shattered and the election has resurrected the notion that African politicians view elections as a means of attaining power which will then not be yielded under any circumstances whatever the consequences for the country.
   Given the recent record of African elections it is hard to be optimistic. The first in this appalling hall of shame were the Nigerian elections of last April in which scores were killed and observers despatched to monitor the proceedings pronounced them the most fraudulent they had ever seen. Their predecessors were the Ethiopian elections of 2005 which brought the deaths of 199 protesters. In October 2006 it had been the turn of Congo which managed to hold reasonably peaceful elections but then saw fit to hound the leader of the opposition out of the country. In all these cases the incumbents won the elections.

  But no African leader seems to learn from this dismal record. No more graphic illustration of this could have been provided than by the spectacle of the international community urging compromise on the Kenyan contenders only to see Kibaki refuse any discussion of the result though it did not meet with the approval of any outside observers. Equally, he has rejected a full enquiry into the polling. Even an attempt at mediation by the African Union foundered when President John Kufuor of Ghana was told that his help was not required. Uganda, for its part, elected to take the results at face value and congratulated the president on his victory. That may well turn out to be the pattern with neighbouring countries dependent on Kenyan goodwill for their trade and the smooth functioning of their economies.
   Odinga for his part has rejected any suggestion that he serve under Kibaki, claiming that he won the election fair and square. Kibaki then compounded his obstinacy by naming a cabinet which he well knows will not win the support of a large percentage of Kenyans.     
   The results have been all too predictable, with the Nairobi Stock Exchange sliding along with the value of the national currency, the shilling, while trade with neighbouring countries has been badly hit. The biggest long-term loser is likely to be the Kenyan tourist industry, which is normally worth some $800 million a year. Already hotels and travel agents are reporting cancellations of up to 80 per cent of their bookings. The current situation is hardly an encour-agement to anyone proposing investment either in Kenya or elsewhere on the continent since all African nations tend to get tarred with the same brush no matter how unfair that may be.
   At the present time the balance of sympathy must surely lie with the prospective investor as the African political elite go to extraordinary lengths to shoot themselves in the foot. The conduct of these leaders carries through into the consciousness of Westerners who hitherto have been more willing to help with generous help to NGOs (non-governmental organisations) that help the poor in these countries who seem to count for so little with their own leaderships. The debacle in Kenya, one of the most accessible and visible examples of an African nation, serves as pointer to many other nations in need of help. What will happen to those hitherto willing donors as they witness the ultimate worthlessness of their assistance? That will be just a part of the disgraceful Kibaki legacy.

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