asianaffairs-Feb 2008

                                Pakistan

Between hope and despair

Pakistan looks headed for a grim future beyond the elections, comments Ashok K Behuria

  About 81 million voters will exercise their franchise in the elections in Pakistan scheduled for 18 February. The Election Commission has disclosed that 7949 candidates are in the electoral race for 1068 seats in parliament and the four provincial assemblies.

  Meanwhile, the tribal frontier is getting hotter with each passing day. The rumour mills are agog that the new army chief, General Ashraf Kiyani, is bypassing President Pervez Musharraf in his interactions with the Americans and is going to allow them a foothold in Pakistan. The Americans are now claiming that the Afghan resistance is waning and the level of violent activity in the eastern provinces is down by about 40 per cent. An analysis by the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Marine Gen. James Cartwright says that ‘the character of the fight in Pakistan has changed to some extent, and it is more focused inward. Is it a threat that the Pakistanis are ready to handle? Do they need help? Do they need training help? Do they need other types of help? That’s what we’re trying to assess right now.’
   Against this backdrop, the army’s decision to push into Waziristan and fight out Baitullah Mehsud’s forces is giving the impression that General Kiyani is eager to prove to the Americans that he can be relied upon. By this means he may be seeking to cut into the external support base of Musharraf. He may also be attempting to establish his credentials as an army chief made of sterner stuff than merely as Musharraf’s protégé.
   In another era, General Musa Khan was sidelined by President Ayub Khan. Obviously, General Kiyani would not want to repeat that history. He seems to have as his role model General Yahya Khan, who also belonged to the Baloch Regiment.
   General Kiyani was the first army chief to have sent his soldiers to lay a wreath at the grave of Benazir Bhutto. He later met her husband privately. In his first speech to the trainee officers of the Army in Quetta, he asked them to value public opinion and not to meddle in politics. American journalists too have vouchsafed for his democratic credentials.
Addressing his corps commanders — who are mostly Musharraf loyalists — General Kiyani asserted that ultimately the will of the people and their support was ‘decisive’ in Pakistan. This set off a slew of analyses that with General Kiyani in the saddle, Pakistan may have a smooth return to democracy after the elections. His pronouncements in favour of democracy are seen as calculated moves to eat into Musharraf’s depleted support base at home.
   But politics is a game of glorious uncertainties. There are indications that Kiyani may not like Musharraf to tamper with the ongoing political process and may want the elections to be free and fair. At the same time, he may not intervene if Musharraf tries to manipulate the electoral process in favour of PML-Q (Pakistan Muslim League – Qaid e Azam) and MQM (Muttahida Qaumi Movement).
   Musharraf’s increasing exposure to western media is interpreted as a move to engage the audience, and primarily his critics, in the West and show that even now everything is well within control. He has also assured his audience that he was not too much of a dictator and would like to withdraw if the newly elected assembly does not want him. There are also reports that he has sent feelers to London to talk to Shahbaz Sharif, and is seeking to patch up with Nawaz Sharif.
   The force of circumstances has apparently induced moderation in the most powerful actors on the stage of power politics in Pakistan. The lawyers’ movement (that started in January 2006) must have certainly rattled all prospective dictators in Pakistan. The civil society in Pakistan has been active like never before. It is showing signs of increasing restlessness that can only be halted by free and fair elections.
Musharraf has pledged free and fair elections but has not agreed to the demand to form a national government to oversee the elections. His political survival depends on denying his opponents two-thirds majority in the elections. To minimise his loss in the elections he has banned opinion polls, asked the media not to indulge in anti-government propaganda and asked the people to support PML-Q. If his followers get more than one-third of the National Assembly seats it would protect the constitutional revisions he has initiated thus far and automatically defang his political opponents.

If subsequently General Kiyani asserts himself against Musharraf, the Pakistan Army may split into two camps. Neither of these protagonists would allow their differences to snowball into such a crisis.
   Pitting General Kiyani against Musharraf is not in the interest of the Americans at the moment. But if the forthcoming elections strengthen the hands of anti-Musharraf forces in Pakistan, the US would need General Kiyani more than Musharraf. A subdued Musharraf with an army chief ready to give democracy a chance may be good news for Pakistan. Alternately, if the fragmented and disunited political forces seek to depose Musharraf, that could also lead to a crisis. A grossly rigged election may also unleash forces too difficult for both Musharraf and Kiyani to handle.
   The most probable scenario on the horizon, even with free and fair elections, is that of a hung assembly pulling in different directions. This may strengthen Musharraf’s hands and remove the fear of an assertive army chief. In that case, the responsibility for bringing demo-cracy back to Pakistan will devolve on the politicians. They will have to decide whether they and Musharraf deserve one another. In any case, Pakistan looks headed for a grim future beyond the elections.

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