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Editorial
The curse of wrongful jihad
The future is by definition difficult to predict and this applies as much to Asia's political landscape as it does to other parts of the world. But one constant that applies in Asia, and which is safely predicted to be hugely relevant for the rest of 2011, is the war against terror that is being fought in the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.
One of those who was once part of that landscape, and has since renounced it, is a former commander of the Libyan Islamic Fighting group and a one time associate of both Osama Bin Laden and his deputy, Ayman Zawahiri.
Not too many people get to defy Bin Laden and live to tell the tale. Those who dare to take on the terrorist king, currently in hiding somewhere along the Afghan-Pakistan border, also have to consider the outrage of his devoted followers, who will not tolerate any form of disrespect towards their misguided leader.
Noman Benotman (see interview in this month's magazine) has in his own small way carved out a space for himself in history by challenging the very premise on which Bin Laden has based his campaign of killing and intimidation of Western targets. To read Benotman's open letter to Bin Laden is to read about 'illegitimate suicide bombings' and how Bin Laden's actions have become a 'curse for the very people we sought to help'.
No doubt Bin Laden's loyalists will dismiss Benotman as an irrelevant outsider and an instrument of the West. But Benotman's carefully argued points — about how 'wrongful jihad' has failed everywhere from America to Afghanistan — cannot be simply wished away. His supplementary point that Bin Laden's actions have caused pain and suffering for thousands of innocent Muslims, who are now viewed with suspicion and even hatred, is just as important.
It may be premature to argue that the war against Bin Laden's Islamic terror has reached a turning point. But Benotman has done a service to the world community by exposing the contradictions of the so-called jihadi war and its failure to achieve anything concrete beyond the slaughter of thousands of innocents.
Divisions within Bin Laden's own ranks account for some of the failures, but the relentless military campaign of the US and its allies is also a relevant factor. The pitiless attacks launched by US military drones on Pakistani and Afghan border villages, aided by the legions of CIA-paid spotter agents deployed in countless Pakistani towns, have helped to undermine the morale of the terrorist battalions.
The Americans have been further assisted in their war by amazing developments in information technology that help them to collate information about the enemy that has never before been possible. For example, it has now become apparent that mobile telephones, even if they have been switched off, can be used as information beacons for the drones that are so regularly deployed in Pakistani and Afghan skies.
All this has had an impact on Bin Laden's loyalists. Some have given up the fight, others have splintered and re-deployed for the time being in areas like the hill tracts of Bangladesh, or in countries such as Yemen and Somalia. Re-deploying, however, does not mean immunity from future attacks. In other words, the splinters know they are vulnerable.
Of course there will be other important Asia stories in the months ahead. They comprise possible political convulsions in Iran, including the political survival of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad and his allies, the possible political comeback of former Philippines First Lady Imelda Marcos, and the rising economic power of China and India.
But the war against terror means that Afghanistan and Pakistan can be safely predicted to capture the headlines for the foreseeable future in 2011 and beyond. Whether it is the fine print of the war in specific areas like Afghanistan's Helmand province, the survival of President Hamid Karzai's administration, or the future of Pakistan and the survival in turn of President Asif Zardari, these are the stories that will not go away.
The terrorists will inevitably do their best to re-assert themselves. Equally, there will be others like Benotman who question the validity of the terrorists' goals, adding a new dimension to the war. Asia and the rest of the world have been warned and know what to expect.
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