Iran–Israel

Speculation on a possible strike on Iran’s N-facilities

Many countries are sceptical of the US intelligence report clearing Iran of nuclear weapon ambitions, reports            Rupert Fisher

  Israel is waging a world-wide diplomatic campaign to refute a report by the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE), which was compiled by 16 US intelligence agencies, and which found that Iran was not pursuing nuclear weapons.
  

  Israel is so worried about the report that it decided to dispatch a team of security and military experts to Washington and a number of European capitals to try to convince their governments that the mullahs in Iran are continuing their efforts to achieve nuclear weapons.
   The Israelis see Iran as a strategic threat to their very existence, especially in light of threats made by hard-line Iranian President Ahmedinejad to eliminate the Jewish state.
   The intelligence report, which caught Israel by surprise, has also created tensions between the Israelis and their American allies. The report is now scheduled to be at the centre of talks when US President George W. Bush visits Israel early in the New Year.
   Bush’s visit was originally supposed to focus on ways of reviving the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. But in the wake of increased Israeli concerns over the Iran report, Israeli leaders have demanded that Bush’s talks focus primarily on the alleged Iranian nuclear threat.
   As a sign of the growing tensions between the two parties, US government officials are said to have strongly protested to their Israeli counterparts over a series of statements made by senior Israeli officials in response to the report exonerating Iran.
Following the protest, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert convened his cabinet ministers and instructed them to refrain from publicly criticising the report or the Bush Administration.
   The Americans were particularly enraged by statements made by Police Minister Avi Dichter, who warned that US ‘misconceptions’ regarding Iran could trigger a new Middle East war.
‘US misconceptions regarding Iran could bring about another Yom Kippur War in our region’, Dichter said, referring to the 1973 Israeli-Arab war.
   Dichter, a former Shin Bet (internal security) head, condemned the US for its ‘misguided’ perspective on the Iranian nuclear programme. ‘We were unable to convince the US of the immediacy and proximity of the Iranian nuclear threat’, he explained. ‘The area threatened by Iranian missiles is now within its strike range, and includes most North African, as well as European, countries.’
   Dichter minced no words regarding the report’s draftsmen as well, claiming that ‘US assessment of the Iranian nuclear threat is seriously flawed, and we can only hope that the US can address these errors.’ He further stated that ‘Israel and other countries troubled by the Iranian nuclear menace must help the US revamp its strategy vis-à-vis Iran through shared intelligence as well as other means.’
   Another former Shin Bet chief and current minister, Ami Ayalon, urged the Israeli government to work toward forming a regional anti-Iranian alliance.
   He said Israel should consider Iran as a ‘threat to all pragmatic players in the region’. Ayalon also mocked the US intelligence assessment, adding that  Washington’s report on Iran’s nuclear programme  is ‘probably wrong’.
   The report has even created trouble at home for Olmert, who is now being attacked by his political opponents for handling the Iranian threat in an ‘irresponsible manner’ by failing to convince the Americans about Tehran’s efforts to achieve nuclear weapons.
   Uri Ariel, a prominent member of one of Israel’s right-wing parties, said ‘The publication of the report testifies to the extent of the government’s irresponsibility. They have promised us for years that the Americans will take care of the Iranian nuclear issue, but now it is clear that they have shirked responsibility for the issue. Blame for this screw-up falls even more strongly on Strategic Affairs Minister Avigdor       Lieberman as it is his paramount duty to guarantee coordination with the United States regarding this (threat).’
   Lieberman, who joined the cabinet in 2007 to deal specifically with the alleged Iranian nuclear threat, defended his government’s policy by calling Iran ‘the foundation of the Axis of Evil’ and that full cooperation with the US regarding Iran continues. ‘We are not just sitting on our hands. This government has many disadvantages, but never before has a government worked on this problem at such a fundamental level.’
   Lieberman said that one must also read the ‘fine print’ in the American report. ‘Unlike the Security Council’s decision, (the report claims) that they are continuing to enrich uranium. Is there another UN member nation in the world that so often declares its intention to destroy Israel?’ Lieberman wondered aloud.
   Now that Israel has been left almost alone on the Iranian issue, some security experts say they do not rule out the possibility that the Israelis may have decided to launch their own military strike against Iran, as they did with the Iraqi nuclear reactor in the early 1980s and an alleged nuclear plant in Syria last September.
   Former CIA official Bruce Riedel, who visited Israel in November, said he emerged with the impression convinced that Israel would attack Iran.
   Citing conversations he had in Israel with officials in the Mossad secret service and the Israeli defence establishment, Riedel concluded in an article published in Newsweek that ‘Israel is not going to allow its nuclear monopoly to be threatened.’
   While some US experts doubt Israel’s ability to tackle Iran alone, David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, was quoted as saying that although information on the exact location of Iran’s nuclear facility is incomplete, Israel’s air strike on an alleged Syrian nuclear facility on 6 September, widely discussed in foreign media outlets, could be seen as a test run for any future strike on Iran’s facilities, as well as a direct warning to Tehran.
   For his part Riedel said his impression that Israel would venture a strike on Iran on its own was formed before the publication of the joint US intelligence agencies’ report. ‘This report makes it (a strike on Iran) even more likely’, he said.
   Dr. Gilbert Kahn, professor of political science at Kean University in Union, New Jersey, pointed out that Washington had abandoned its main ally to face an existential threat.
  ‘It appears that the State of Israel may once again be facing a potential existential threat alone’, he said. ‘While most would agree that a diplomatic solution to Iran’s potential nuclear sabre rattling is highly preferable to a military confrontation, it is curious that not only Israel but also the British, the French, the Germans, and especially the Saudis and the Gulf states appear to be sceptical of the new report.’
   Israel, he added, cannot afford ‘mistakes’ by its allies, especially when they pose an existential threat. ‘They need to refocus the US on Iran’s nuclear ambitions despite the new assessment, persuade other nations to keep the economic pressure on Tehran, and harness the Saudis’ overwhelming self-interest. Time is fleeting.’

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