The diplomatic one is rendered particularly complex by Pakistan's persistent attempt to obfuscate the issue by drawing a red herring across the trail, and because India has categorically ruled out the military option. Many have criticised the government for this. Some have called the Manmohan Singh government 'pusillanimous'. But the decision to allay all fears of war or even of 'surgical strikes' on terrorist strongholds in Pakistan is a wise one. Four wars over the years solved no problem. A fifth, with the attendant risk of escalation to the nuclear threshold, would solve none. Nor should it be forgotten that the massive mobilisation of troops on the border after the attack on Indian Parliament in December 2001 was counter-productive.

Yet it has become necessary to put the peace process on hold and to make it clear to Islamabad that there can be no 'business as usual' until Pakistan-based terrorism against this country is ended convincingly. Other non-military measures may follow should Pakistan persist in its traditional denial mode on the one hand and go on erasing manifest evidence on its own soil. The wide world has seen TV images of the goons of the infamous Pakistani spy agency, the ISI, surround and practically shut down the village of Faridkot to which belongs the sole surviving terrorist, Ajmal Amir Kasab, now in Indian custody. His parents have already confirmed that he is their son. What has mortified the rulers of Pakistan is that Nawaz Sharif, a former prime minister and leader of the party ruling Punjab, has categorically stated that Kasab is a Pakistani national, and that the Faridkot village has been surrounded by the intelligences agencies unnecessarily.

Nothing seems more bizarre than that the leaders of the fragile and inconsequential civilian government of Pakistan should go on complaining that they haven't been provided the necessary evidence. Is any evidence needed after what British Prime Minister Gordon Brown and the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have said publicly? The world knows that the electronic intelligence agencies of both Britain and Unite States have recorded the same exchanges between the murderous thugs in Mumbai and their masterminds back home that India has done. Indeed, it is inexplicable and annoying that the Indian government does not release the transcripts of these incriminating conversations. It is also noteworthy that after a certain delay, Condi Rice has punctured the Pakistani pretence that Jamaat-ud-Dawa, totally 'intertwined with the Lashkar-e-Taiba', is a 'charity'. Washington has also told Pakistan's National Security Adviser, retired general Mahmud Ali Durrani that America is 'not satisfied' with what Pakistan has done so far about the Mumbai outrage.

There is no doubt that across the world there is great sympathy with India and even America's patience with its Pakistani 'allies' is wearing thin. But to end the menace of cross-border terrorism that the Pakistan Army and the ISI have nurtured for more than two decades, mere words of sympathy are not enough, especially at a time when Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari has been reduced to defending the murderers of his wife. To quote Newsweek, Zardari's civilian government is a mere 'bystander' while the permanent Pakistani establishment runs the policy towards India, Afghanistan and the terrorist outfits.

Unless the U.S. — whose word alone matters to Pakistan — leans heavily on the army and ISI, its pious exhortations would get us nowhere. And it is precisely here that a very crucial complicating factor comes in. Its name is Afghanistan. The war in that luckless country is going very badly for the Nato, led by the U.S., partly because of the sanctuaries and support the Taliban and Al Qaeda enjoy in Pakistan's tribal lands about which Islamabad is doing little. Instead, the Americans are striking targets in the Pakistani territory with missiles. The U.S. president-elect, Barack Obama, is keen on an Iraq like 'surge' in Afghanistan to win the war on terrorism. For this Pakistan's cooperation is vital. More than 70 per cent of all supplies for Nato troops and the Afghan National Army go from Pakistan via the Khyber Pass in the North West Frontier Province.

It is no mere coincidence that in recent days, hundreds of Nato trucks on way to Afghanistan have been attacked and immobilised. In Indian eyes, this is part of Pakistan's calculated strategy to put America on notice that it should either ease its pressure on Pakistan in regard to terrorism against India or forgo supplies from Pakistan. To be sure, Nato is negotiating alternative routes, one via Russia and Central Asian countries and the other through Belarus and Georgia. But it would take time to conclude these arrangements. The main challenge to Indian diplomacy therefore is to see to it that the U.S. does not succumb to the Pakistan Army's blackmail. For this purpose, it would be necessary to mobilise European opinion. The Americans need to be told that letting down India and indulging the Pakistan Army because of expediency would in fact damage American interests much more than if it carried its pressure on Pakistan to its logical conclusion. After all, the U.S. gives Islamabad one and a half billion dollars a year in military and economic aid.

At home, the egregious terrorist act has done some good by bringing together bitterly antagonist groups. The country looks united, and for the first time in years parliament spoke in one voice to declare that in the face of terrorism India was one and would fight the menace determinedly. The excruciating jolt in Mumbai has brought the politicians to their senses. But this was too good to last. The unity that parliament displayed against terrorism — it immediately passed the laws to establish a national investigative agency that India, the second worst victim of terrorism after Iraq , did not have so far, and strengthened anti-terror laws — was impressive. P.Chidambaram, the new Home Minister, has shown his mettle and brought in the necessary legislation. But the unity is already fraying at the seams. The polity is too fragmented and polarised.

An experienced civil servant has said privately that even the existing laws are adequate. The problem is to gear up the administration and police to work efficiently and jointly implement the laws. 

Meanwhile a Muslim cabinet minister, Abdul Rahman Antulay, has started a virtual firestorm by buying into a stupid conspiracy theory to the effect that Hemant Karkare, the gallant head of the Mumbai Anti-Terrorist Squad, was killed not by Pakistani terrorists but Hindutva extremists angry with his investigations into Hindu terrorism in Malegaon in Maharashtra. Pakistan has gone to town on this statement for it gives the beleaguered Zardari government an escape hatch. Correspondingly in India there is ranging anger against Antulay.

The Congress leadership had almost instantly distanced itself from Antulay's statement and had expected him to either retract his remarks or resign. But he remains defiant and sticks to his stand that Karkare's death be investigated. He has offered to resign, of course. But the Congress leadership seems scared to accept it because Antulay has got much support from fellow Muslims. This runs counter to the Congress party's crass electoral calculations. By the same token, the BJP-led opposition has heightened its attack on the ruling coalition's 'vote bank' politics. Once again the communal divide is widening. No one seems to care.

It no longer matters whether Antulay stays or goes. Enough damage has already been done.

top