And with anti-government protests becoming increasingly violent, all of its main airports paralysed and the country in a state of incipient chaos, there was never a more important moment for the monarch to give the politicians a nudge in the direction he would like them to take. His only overt interventions took place at the time of the bloody 1973 coup and at the time of a much less traumatic upheaval in 1992. The king's political advice is not always that of a tried and true democrat but it usually results in improved stability and with that commodity in short supply the nation was agog to hear from its monarch on the occasion of his eightieth birthday in early December. This was surely a moment to unlock the political crisis and help get the country's paralysed economy moving again.

But the king never spoke. The official explanation was that he was not well enough to do so but that barely seemed an adequate explanation. It is perhaps more likely that the monarch elected this time to stay out of the political fray. As a key guarantor of the country's stability the failing health of the 81-year-old has been a concern for some time for, like the comforting hand of nurse, the nation has long been reluctant to let go for fear of something worse. Perhaps the king has decided that it is time for the country to get used to the idea of the post-Bhumibol era.   

The conditions for making the transition could scarcely come at a less apposite time. With the damage to Thailand's key tourist industry from the political unrest expected to run into billions of dollars and the prospects for the economy in 2009 declining, the king must hope that the transition to the new government of Abhisit Vejjajiva, an Oxford-educated economist, is a smooth and relatively long-lived one.

Abhisit comes with some admirable qualities. He is the country's youngest-ever prime minister and, most important of all, he comes with a squeaky-clean record despite 16 years in parliament. He starts with a still-electric political atmosphere and the reality of an up to 50 per cent drop in tourism arrivals in parts of Thailand.

The principal division in the country remains where it has been for some years past: between supporters and opponents of the exiled former prime minister, Thaksin Shinawatra, the telecommunications tycoon, who was overthrown by the army in 2006 and sentenced to two years' jail on a conflict of interest charge. He is also accused of a string of corruption charges which he denies. He is also the former owner of Manchester City football club which he bought for $162m in 2007 which boosted his popularity in the regions of Thailand where he had the loyalty of the rural poor. He sold the club to the Abu Dhabi royal family in September last.

Though Thaksin may have reduced his shareholding in the City club to 10 per cent, he seems intent on maintaining a more powerful interest in Thai politics and has been recruiting 'Asia's best talents' to a new think tank which is styled the Building a Better Future Foundation. No one is quite sure what Thaksin intends to do with his new vehicle but given the level of support he still retains in Thailand no one is taking any bets against his attempting a comeback at some point.  

It was antipathy to the People's Power Party (PPP), backed by Thaksin, then being led by his brother-in-law, Somchai Wongsawat, that fuelled the weeks of violent political protest by the yellow-clad supporters of the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) which included the occupation of the compound of the prime minister's office since last August which led to the prime minister having to run the nation from a makeshift office at the capital's old airport and eventually led to the week-long closure of the capital's international airport, the inaptly named Suvarnabhumi or 'golden land'. The occupation of the airport was one of those bizarre events that exemplify the complexity of Thai politics and the self-interest of many participants. Since Thailand's airports are controlled by the military it remains a moot question why the occupation was allowed to develop in the first place. Was it a deliberate machination — successful as it turned out — to discredit the PAD, but at enormous cost to the country's economy and reputation in a region of high pressure and highly successful economies?

Among the problems for the 44-year-old Abhisit as he comes to power is his close association with a party that adopted such violent methods and the reality that he faces several by-elections this month that could threaten the stability of his Democrat-led coalition government.

The PAD were so determined to prevent any return to power by Thaksin or his cohorts that they proposed a move back to a half-appointed, half-elected parliament, hardly an advance on the currently fully elected body. But then for Thai electors the choices ahead offer little that is new: both coalitions vying for their attention are essentially the political fronts of business interests. In essence the country politically is where it was two years ago, only now it faces a world economic crunch with the added damage already done to its annual $16 billion worth of foreign investment and tourism. The most optimistic forecasts for next year's economic performance predict 3 per cent economic growth while others expect that the economy will actually contract. Abhisit's task on the domestic front is not unlike that of Barack Obama. Very few politicians would care to swap jobs with either man but the Thai leader also knows he may be leading his country into uncharted political waters without the wise counsel of the monarch on which to rely.

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