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January 2010
India and China
Friends or foes?
The bonhomie seen between the two emerging Asian powerhouses in Copenhagen was remarkable, but it was not so in the recent past when Chinese state-controlled media was going overboard in its anti-India rhetoric. So which of the two pictures is for real?
By George Friedman
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JOINING HANDS for a united front at the Copenhagen climate summit December 18 are India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh (left) and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao
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A question engaging the strategic community in India today is whether the extraordinary cooperation and coordination between the Indian and Chinese delegations at the Copenhagen Summit on Climate Change could turn out to be a catalyst for a new era of cooperation between Asia's two emerging economic powerhouses.
The coordination in Copenhagen was so watertight that an impatient President Obama walked into a meeting of the new grouping of emerging economic powers at the summit, as he had evidently reached the conclusion that no movement forward was possible in Copenhagen, unless the United States struck deal with the 'BASIC' grouping comprising Brazil, South Africa, India and China. Even before Obama walked in, Chinese Prime Minister had told Dr. Manmohan Singh: 'I admire you very much. They (the U.S.-led industrialised West) will try and split us, but India-China unity should hold.' Dr. Manmohan Singh reportedly replied: 'Mr. Premier, India will certainly stand by you.' Ultimately, the 'Basic' grouping held together and struck a deal with Obama, who declared: 'Thank you for being so constructive and positive. It will work out well, I promise.' |
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The Sino-India bonhomie in Copenhagen was in marked contrast to Manmohan Singh's extraordinarily frank references to China barely two weeks earlier in Washington. Singh's Washington visit was preceded by Obama's own none too successful visit to Beijing. The Americans now realise that China's 'rise' to great power status involves a more strident approach to its neighbours, including forceful claims to 3 million square kilometres in the South China Sea, peremptorily brushing aside objections from countries ranging from Japan and South Korea to Vietnam, Malaysia and the Philippines.
China is also now advocating policies designed to undermine the role of the U.S. dollar in the global economy and moving towards establishing an Asian Monetary Fund to sideline the IMF. Moreover, in the longer term the Chinese would like to see the dollar replaced in Asian markets by a basket of Asian currencies dominated by the yuan. Militarily, the Chinese are building maritime, missile and space capabilities to challenge American pre-eminence in the Asia-Pacific.
Even before Singh embarked on his Washington visit, New Delhi approved a visit of the Dalai Lama to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, signalling that it will not countenance China's outrageous territorial claims on Arunachal Pradesh, its absurd practice of issuing a separate category of visas for residents of Jammu and Kashmir and its attempts to block multilateral development assistance for projects in Arunachal Pradesh. (In contrast, Obama sent an emissary to tell the Dalai Lama that he would be unable to receive the Tibetan spiritual leader, prior to his visit to Beijing.)
India has also, for the first time, objected to China's aid projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and rejected the notion that China can send thousands of unskilled workers to implement projects for which it has been awarded contracts in India, misusing provisions of 'Business Visas,' which India liberally issues. Most significantly, for the first time, India's Defence Minister A.K. Anthony has publicly expressed concern about the growing security ties between China and Pakistan.
That Dr. Manmohan Singh had concerns about the U.S. conceding the role of a regional hegemon in Asia to China was evident from the account of his discussions in the White House, when he confirmed that his discussions with President Obama not only covered traditional issues like high technology transfers, cooperation in space and nuclear power, terrorism and the 'Af-Pak' region, but also 'covered the need to have an open and inclusive architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region'.
For over a decade now, China has lobbied vigorously with Asean members in Southeast Asia to exclude India from the emerging architecture of cooperation in the Asia-Pacific. When India became a full dialogue partner of Asean and a member of the Asean Regional Forum (ARF), China made no secret of its displeasure and subsequently joined an effort to undermine the Indian role by supporting the admission of Pakistan to the ARF. China subsequently sought to restrict the proposed 'East Asian Summit' to an 'Asean+3' grouping which includes Japan, South Korea and China and pointedly excludes India. While India has subsequently joined the 'East Asian Summit' grouping, China even today seeks to undertake major initiatives on fiscal, monetary and other issues in the Asia-Pacific in the 'Asean + 3' format.
In larger strategic terms, the Chinese approach to India has been consistent and marked by a determination to 'contain' India. This policy has included the supply of nuclear weapons designs and wherewithal, apart from the transfer of missile technology and conventional weapons to Pakistan. At the same time, the Chinese have consistently sought to exploit problems that India has in relations with other South Asian neighbours like Sri Lanka, Nepal and Bangladesh. Moreover, while seeking to deny a strategic profile to India in the Asia-Pacific, China has also now moved to strengthen its maritime presence in the Indian Ocean.
Further, ever since the Obama administration came to power and appeared to concede a special role for China, going to the extent of even seeking to promote a role for China in influencing India-Pakistan relations, the Chinese have manifested a new assertiveness in their dealings with not only India, but also with other neighbours.
Following recent steps taken by India, including the strengthening of its military deployments along the Sino-Indian border and the visit of Dr. Singh to Washington, there has been a toning down in the stridency of rhetoric about India in the Chinese media. It remains to be seen if the cooperation in Copenhagen results in any change in China's approach to India's role in the Asia-Pacific and across the Indian Ocean. It would only be prudent for India to remember that China's policies are shaped largely by a realistic assessment of global developments and the balance of power in Asia.. top | |