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To Russia with love

The recent Indo-Russian summit saw the two countries keeping nuclear cooperation at the top of their agenda — though the economic aspects of their 'special relationship' continue to cause concern.

By Inder Malhotra

NUCLEAR REACTION: Despite protests by local agitators, Dr Singh has insisted the Russian-built reactors at Kudankulam are 'absolutely safe'

Under the norms of present-day diplomacy, India is a strategic partner of practically every country — from China to Brazil, Australia, Germany and France — that plays a noticeable role on the international stage. But Russia's position is different. Both sides describe it as a 'special and privileged' relationship. This has been more than confirmed after the 12th annual Indo-Russian summit in Moscow from which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh returned home on December 17.

Although ambitious targets for trade and 'comprehensive economic cooperation' have also been agreed to during Dr Singh's talks with the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, and prime minister Vladimir Putin, nuclear cooperation between the two sides, going back three decades, was at the top of their agenda for very good reasons.
Two Russian-built nuclear power plants worth Rs. 14,000 crores are ready at Kudankulam in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu but cannot be made operational because of massive and protracted agitation by the people in the area, who fear for their safety and livelihood. They include a large number of fishermen who claim that fish might not survive in waters

in the vicinity of Kudankulam. As if this wasn't enough, the state government, led by a feisty lady, J Jayalalitha, is supportive of the agitators.

Under the norms of present-day diplomacy, India is a strategic partner of practically every country — from China to Brazil, Australia, Germany and France — that plays a noticeable role on the international stage. But Russia's position is different. Both sides describe it as a 'special and privileged' relationship. This has been more than confirmed after the 12th annual Indo-Russian summit in Moscow from which Prime Minister Manmohan Singh returned home on December 17.

Although ambitious targets for trade and 'comprehensive economic cooperation' have also been agreed to during Dr Singh's talks with the Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, and prime minister Vladimir Putin, nuclear cooperation between the two sides, going back three decades, was at the top of their agenda for very good reasons.
Two Russian-built nuclear power plants worth Rs. 14,000 crores are ready at Kudankulam in the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu but cannot be made operational because of massive and protracted agitation by the people in the area, who fear for their safety and livelihood. They include a large number of fishermen who claim that fish might not survive in waters in the vicinity of Kudankulam. As if this wasn't enough, the state government, led by a feisty lady, J Jayalalitha, is supportive of the agitators.

Despite all this, Dr Singh assured his hosts — and later told the Indian media accompanying him — that the Russian-built reactors were 'absolutely safe', that the experts of the Atomic Energy Commission had answered all the doubts and misgivings, and that the agitation was 'overdone'. He was therefore confident that the first Kudankulam reactor would be operational within two weeks, and the second one six months later. Unfortunately, this was greeted with an outburst of anger in Tamil Nadu. The protestors have intensified their agitation — they have indeed demanded that the uranium at the plant site should be removed by December 31 — and Ms Jayalalitha has written a rather sharp letter to the prime minister advising him that he should allay people's fears before taking any 'precipitate action'. One can only hope that Dr Singh and his government, already mired in a number of intractable controversies over corruption (against which Gandhian Anna Hazare is carrying on a 'crusade'), food security, foreign direct investment in retail trade et al, can keep their word to the Russians. Dr Singh's opening gambit is to assure Tamil Nadu that half of the 2,000 MW of power to be produced at Kudankulam would be allocated to Tamil Nadu, which is woefully short of electricity.

It is no secret that the Russian side was expecting the Indian prime minister to sign a contract for the construction of two more nuclear plants at the same site but this was not possible. They had to be content with the joint declaration that the two sides had agreed on the 'terms and conditions' for Kudankulam three and four but a firm agreement on these would be signed later. Behind these bland words lies India's acceptance of the Russian position that all the new reactors to be set up at Kudankulam are under the 1980s' agreement and therefore do not attract the Indian law, passed subsequently, on nuclear liability that covers both the operator and the supplier in the case of a nuclear accident. Left to them, the Russians would like to build at Kudankulam not just four but eight nuclear plants, each with a capacity of 1,000 MW. That, however, is unlikely and the two sides will have to agree on an alternative site whereupon the question of nuclear liability is almost certain to arise.

One other ticklish problem about nuclear cooperation the Russians have confronted with finesse. The Indo-United States nuclear deal had categorically promised 'full nuclear cooperation' with India. But the Americans had kept an escape hatch open on the issue of enrichment and reprocessing (ENR) technologies. Shortly afterwards, the Vienna-based Nuclear Suppliers' Group (NSG) adopted a special guideline to the effect that no ENR should be supplied to countries that haven't signed the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). India hasn't signed this treaty nor would it ever adhere to it.

The Russian solution to this conundrum is to enrich India's uranium or reprocess its spent fuel on Russian soil. This would enable it to honour its bilateral commitments to India as well as international obligations.

Apart from arriving at nuclear understanding, the leaders of India and Russia also signed a significant agreement in the field of defence. Under it, Moscow would sell Delhi 42 more Sukhoi-30 fighter aircraft, making it the workhorse of the Indian Air Force in the next decade. The Russians, like the Americans, are disappointed because they didn't get the order for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) worth $10 billion. But the Russians have the satisfaction that they and the Indians are jointly designing and developing the fifth-generation fighter.

India has been unhappy with the long delay in delivery by Russia of the elaborately refitted aircraft carrier Admiral Gorshkov. The Russian leaders assured Dr Singh that the vessel would reach Indian shores next year. They are aware of India's need to build up its navy in view of mounting maritime challenges, especially from China. A Russian nuclear submarine leased to India will also arrive in 2012.

While Indo-Russian cooperation in the nuclear, defence, science and space arenas has flourished, their economic relations continue to be a source of concern. With great efforts, their bilateral trade has barely reached $10 billion. This is a small fraction of India's trade with either China or the US. The new target now fixed is to double it in four years. This, too, would be a pittance compared with the commerce in the Soviet era.

Consequently, the two sides are now trying to hammer out a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. According to Russian sources, India has also set its eye on fitting into the comprehensive agreement the concept of customs union that Russia has struck with Kazakhstan in Central Asia and with Belarus in Europe. A host of corporate honchos on both sides are working on mutual investments in their projects. How this will work out also remains to be seen.
Incidentally, while the prime minister was in
Moscow, the US under-secretary of state, William Burns, was in Delhi to discuss India's nuclear liability law that has dismayed America's potential investors in India's lucrative nuclear industry. The reply he got was that New Delhi had made the regulations under this law as easy as possible, but the legislation passed by parliament must prevail. 

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