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A nation of two halves

As North Korea mourns the loss of its longtime leader and welcomes his successor, David Watts looks at the effects this will have on both sides of the Korean peninsula.

Editorial

Syria: squaring the circle of the Arab spring?

Syria holds the key to what happens in the longer term in the Middle East where the public unrest underpinned by violence shows no sign of abating.

What is popularly styled as the Arab Spring started in Tunisia, but its future course, including wider regional repercussions, is more likely to be determined by what happens more than 1,000 miles to the east in Syria.

The reasons lie in geography, history and politics. Syria's geographical location places it at the centre of the Middle East that incorporates Asia, North Africa and a small slice of Europe in the shape of Eastern Turkey. Historically, Syria's capital, Damascus, has always been one of the region's and the world's most important cultural and economic centres. Romantics and the devout need only recall St Paul's letter from Damascus and the hugely successful processions of caravans that used to start and end in the Syrian capital.

Today Syria is one of three Arab countries, along with Egypt and Iraq, that makes up what is known as the 'beating heart' of the Arab world. All three countries are in political turmoil. Iraq is still trying to find its feet after years of misrule under Saddam Hussein; Egypt is seeking new directions after the downfall of Hosni Mubarak.

Syria still has political continuity under the leadership of Bashar Assad, son of former Syrian President Hafiz al-Assad, but that too is under threat. If Syria is overcome by the Arab Spring, that will have implications that stretch well beyond its immediate political boundaries.

When Mohammed Bouazizi set himself alight in the Tunisian city of Sidi Bouzid last December, he sparked off the trend of civil unrest that started in Tunisia but soon spread to other Arab countries also ruled by unrepresentative and authoritarian regimes.

A street vendor by profession, Bouazizi had been repeatedly bullied and harassed by local police and other officials. When an especially obnoxious policewoman confiscated his goods on December 17, 2010, the 26-year-old victim smeared his body with paint fuel and set himself alight. He died three weeks later.

The callous indifference of local officials then sparked off the uprising that spread to all parts of the country. On January 14, 2011, less than a month after Bouazizi's death, President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali was obliged to flee his country and seek refuge in Saudi Arabia.

Public perceptions of the injustice prevailing in Tunisia have since struck a chord in many neighbouring countries where the story of the Tunisian 'burning man' provoked days of rage following Friday noon prayers in such diverse Arab capitals as Cairo, Algiers, Amman and Sana'a.

The crowds in each of these Arab capitals have their own unique stories to tell of intimidation, harassment, bribery, corruption and mismanagement at the highest levels of their respective governments. But it was in Egypt, the largest Arab country, where the protests were especially bitter and often violent.

Fired up by the example of Tunisia, Egyptians soon took to the streets to protest against higher prices, authoritarian rule and government mismanagement underpinned by a shadowy state that appeared to be under the control of the secret police known as the 'mukhabarat'.

The sheer ferocity of the Egyptian protests was unexpected, given that Mubarak in his earlier years had enjoyed some modest popularity among his fellow Egyptians. He was after all the air force general who had contributed to Egypt's success against Israel in the 1973 Yom Kippur war. When he succeeded the assassinated President Anwar el-Sadat in October 1981, Mubarak enjoyed the backing of many of his fellow Egyptians. In subsequent years that support changed to disgust and anger, culminating in his resignation on February 11, 2011.

Mubarak's downfall encouraged political protests in neighbouring Libya, ultimately leading to the overthrow of Libyan dictator Muammar al-Gaddafi on 23 August, 2011. Yemeni President Abdullah Saleh was forced to resign in November 2011 and political protests have been sparked off in Algeria, Iraq, Morocco, Oman, Kuwait, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and, most notably, Syria.

What happens to these other Arab states and beyond will be heavily influenced by developments in Syria, whose borders are shared with Lebanon, Israel/Palestine, Jordan and Iraq, as well as Turkey. Oil-rich Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states are a metaphorical stone's throw away. Prolonged violence in Syria could easily spill over into any or all of these neighbours as Syrian dissidents seek safe havens abroad.

When the conflict first started in the Syrian city of Dera'a last March, neighbours such as Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq and Jordan took steps to make sure their territories became safe havens for Syrian dissidents.

Each of the concerned neighbours was keen to avoid any military confrontation with Damascus. There were also concerns that political turmoil in Syria, including civil war, Islamic militant-led turmoil and internal fractures could easily spill over across the borders. Hence the early sealing of the Jordanian borders and the decision of the Lebanese authorities to hand Syrian military deserters back to Damascus. Turkey and Iraq held back from any vocal criticism of the Assad regime, although that changed last August when Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan called Assad a liar

Apart from its regional economic importance and political heritage as one of the intellectual centres of the Arab world, Syria is also home to all kinds of minority groups, such as the Kurds, Maronites, Alawites, Shia and Sunni Muslims, Ismailis, Yazidis, Armenians and Greek Orthodox Christians. Any or all of these communities may seek security for themselves across the country's border, or possibly their own place under the sun within Syria as civil tensions multiply across the country. Small wonder, therefore, that the Arab Spring could turn into a Syrian-led Arab winter with all the extra suffering that implies. 

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