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Bad blood and scandal threaten Pak leaders

As the rift widens between the military and the government in Pakistan, and fuel shortages hit the people ever harder, Rahimullah Yusufzai examines a nation and a regime in crisis.

By Rahimullah Yusufzai

ALTERED STATE: Imran Khan, who is is drawing huge crowds at public meetings of his resurgent PTI party, is promising change in Pakistan

Though Pakistan Army chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani helped calm nerves by issuing an unprecedented statement on December 23 that the military had no intention of staging a coup against the government, there was still concern that the armed forces and the PPP-led administration were on a collision course.

Earlier, the situation took a turn for the worse when Prime Minister Syed Yusuf Raza Gilani in two back-to-back speeches on December 22 delivered a rare tirade against Pakistan's powerful military by warning that conspiracies were being hatched to bring down his government. Without actually naming the military, he said certain institutions were behaving like a state within a state. He stressed that nobody was above the law and all institutions should obey the elected parliament.

His outburst stoked fears of a coup and many Pakistanis thought the government could collapse. It prompted General Kayani to issue his statement, in order to deny any chance of a coup. Never before has an army chief given such an assurance. The previous three military coups

were all staged by army chiefs: Field Marshal Ayub Khan, General Ziaul Haq and General Pervez Musharraf. The fourth military ruler, General Yahya Khan, had taken over the reins of power from Ayub Khan. To further reassure the nation, Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry also made it clear while hearing the explosive 'memogate' case that the Supreme Court would not back any unconstitutional move.

However, matters were not helped by the opposition parties' constant demands for a fresh general election. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who is leader of the largest opposition party, PML-N, kept up the pressure on the government by declaring that it was time for the ouster of the rulers. Imran Khan, the cricketer-turned-politician who is drawing huge crowds at public meetings of his resurgent party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and attracting a growing number of politicians from other parties to his ranks, is also seeking removal of the government and promising a change in the country.

In fact, it seems as if the election season has already arrived because the political parties continue to hold big public meetings and politicians are busy making their choices while quitting and joining parties. Besides, the Election Commission expedited efforts to review and correct the voters' list after the Supreme Court warned it to complete the process by February 23, 2012 or face punitive action by the apex court. The Supreme Court rejected the Election Commission's excuses for the delay in preparing the electoral rolls and warned that the country risked bloodshed if the next elections, due in February 2013, were held under bogus voters' lists.

The Supreme Court has been petitioned that there were 38 million bogus votes in the electoral rolls that needed to be verified. The petition has been filed by the PTI head Imran Khan, who is hoping to do well in the next general election on the strength of young voters becoming eligible to vote for the first time in 2013. The sporting hero has greater appeal among the young, who had been losing interest in politics and staying away from the polling stations.
Apart from Imran Khan's PTI, other parties that have organized big public meeting in preparation for general elections are Nawaz Sharif's PML-N, one of the biggest Islamic parties, Jamaat-i-Islami, the nationalist ANP and the MQM with its strongholds in urban Sindh. The PPP, which has lost ground due to the unpopularity of its government, has yet to hold any public meeting, though it gave a show of strength on December 27 on the anniversary of Benazir Bhutto's death, near her mausoleum in Larkana district in Sindh province.

The frenzied political activity and the confrontation between the democratically elected government and the all-powerful military couldn't have come at a worse time. Protests are being staged in many cities and towns against gas shortages and electricity blackouts following the onset of winter. Natural gas is used mostly for cooking and as fuel in vehicles, but the supply is less than the demand. Low gas pressure means that households cannot do their cooking. Electricity shortages are also being felt after a few months of almost regular power supply. Most protestors are common people, including women, and often leaderless. The severity of the weather following snowfall in the mountainous area has contributed to the people's woes. The Minister for Petroleum and Natural Resources, Dr Asim Hussain, shocked the nation when he stated in the National Assembly that there was a severe gas shortage in the country and that the problem would become acute in January 2012. He said consumers would have to use LPG cylinders instead of gas supplies at home in the coming months. The government, with support from the opposition parties, has decided to close down the CNG stations despite protests from the owners, as these stations have mushroomed and were providing cheap gas to vehicles and thus depriving domestic and industrial consumers.

The ailing President Zardari returned to Pakistan on December 19 from the United Arab Emirates. His return put to rest rumours that he won't come back as he risked harm or ouster from office due to the Memogate scandal that is now being heard by the Supreme Court of Pakistan. The President's health problems were politicized and sections of the press and his political opponents were propagating that he was faking his illness in a bid to leave the country and go to Dubai to avoid harm at home. But it became clear that he really did have health problems and had preferred treatment at the American Hospital in Dubai instead of Pakistani hospitals — an issue that also earned him flak. His real ailment, however, was unclear as there had been a number of media reports that insisted he had suffered a stroke. It was also reported earlier that his old heart problems had made him ill or that he may have suffered a minor heart attack. A medical bulletin released by the hospital in Dubai initially said Zardari's hand had become numb and he had lost consciousness before he was brought to the hospital. Doctors have reportedly advised him to rest for a few weeks, but he is already performing some of his presidential functions to deflect pressure to quit due to ill-health.

As a result of his health problems, some of the opposition parties have been demanding that under the Constitution, he should resign as he is no longer fit to discharge his duties. The Jamaat-i-Islami has been more vocal than others in making this demand. The President's supporters insist that he has been restored to health and this was the reason that he flew home and resumed work. However, the issue keeps lingering as the Jamaat-i-Islami and a few other parties are arguing that Zardari has been suffering from physical and mental health problems and needs to be examined by a medical board in Pakistan to determine if he is fit to discharge his duties as President.

The major cause of the widening gulf between the military and the government is the 'memogate' scandal. The former considers the memo as real and has asked the Supreme Court of Pakistan to investigate the matter. It believes the memo was aimed at maligning and weakening Pakistan's armed forces and security institutions. The PPP-headed government has been arguing that the memo was a non-issue and was being used to remove it from power.

The 'memogate' scandal isn't going away, despite the government's efforts. Certainly, it was temporarily pushed into the background due to President Zardari's health problems. The Supreme Court, which was approached about the issue by the main opposition leader Nawaz Sharif and several other applicants, including a Canadian citizen of Pakistani origin, resumed its hearing of the case on December 19. It will be heard by a nine-member bench, headed by Pakistan's widely respected Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry. The Army chief General Kayani, ISI head Lt Gen Pasha, retired US General James Jones and Pakistani-American businessman Mansoor Ijaz have already submitted statements to the court while President Zardari, Prime Minister Gilani and sacked Pakistani ambassador Husain Haqqani have also been issued notices to submit their statements. The President is reluctant to reply to the court while seeking presidential immunity. He had taken the same plea in the case pertaining to the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), the infamous deal that the late Benazir Bhutto had made with President Musharraf to gain amnesty from corruption charges for herself and for scores of politicians from the PPP, MQM and others parties.

The memo case has again brought a political issue to the judiciary, caused polarization in the country and almost paralysed the government. The scandal arose when an explosive memorandum allegedly written by Ambassador Haqqani was passed on to Mansoor Ijaz to be delivered to the then US Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen through General James Jones. The memo sought US help in reining in the Pakistani military and preventing it from staging a coup against the democratic government headed by Zardari and his handpicked Prime Minister Gilani in the aftermath of the May 2 unilateral US Special Forces raid in which Osama bin Laden was killed in Abbottabad. In return, the memo promised the US government that a security team acceptable to Washington would be installed in Pakistan by removing Generals Kayani and Pasha from their jobs, cutting the ISI down to size, ending Pakistan's support for the Taliban and the Haqqani network and handing over to India Pakistani suspects involved in the November 2008 Mumbai carnage.

The Pakistan Army took serious notice of the memo, got Haqqani sacked and is now pushing the Supreme Court to pin responsibility and punish those involved in the scandal. Accusing fingers are being pointed at President Zardari as it is felt Haqqani had drafted the memo at his behest. It is also said that Zardari came under tremendous pressure due to the memo scandal and this was the major reason for the mental and physical stress that caused his health to deteriorate.

Prime Minister Gilani's tirade against the military could have taken the situation to the brink, but General Kayani didn't lose patience and gave his assurance that a coup wasn't being contemplated. However, the military is in no mood to drop the memo issue and this is causing anxiety in the ranks of the PPP government. Zardari and Gilani would want to go down fighting and earn sympathy as democratic politicians refusing to accept the military's ascendance. At this stage the military, by not staging a coup, clearly does not want to fulfil their wish.

A way out will have to be found to let the government complete its five-year term until the general election in early 2013. Still the question remains whether this government, which is weak, vulnerable and unpopular, will be able to last that long.

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