|
'This agreement is very good for Hamas,' said a senior Palestinian official in Ramallah. 'Thanks to Israel, Hamas has finally won legitimacy.'
Hamas leaders have boasted that the agreement came after U.S. and Israeli efforts to overthrow the Hamas government in the Gaza Strip failed. These leaders see the cease-fire agreement as a major victory for Hamas because the movement did not make any serious concessions and did not succumb to international pressure to recognise Israel's right to exist and abandon the 'armed struggle'.
Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said that for Hamas the truce is 'a tactic in conflict management'. He added that it 'is not unusual for the resistance to escalate sometimes and to retreat a bit sometimes as the tide does. The tahdiya (period of calm) creates a formulation that will force Israel to remove the siege and if it happens it will be a remarkable achievement.'
Some Israelis believe that Hamas' interest in a lull in fighting is a result of its 'distress'. But the movement's status has hardly been affected despite the sanctions and military blows from Israel.
Hamas has succeeded in enforcing law and order in the Gaza Strip and remains the most popular movement among Palestinians, at least in the Gaza Strip. And the fact that no group has emerged to openly challenge Hamas' rule speaks for itself.
The accord is also likely to enhance the credibility of other radical groups and regimes in the Middle East, first and foremost Hizbollah and the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad who have been openly supporting Hamas. As far as the radicals are concerned, the agreement proves that it's worth being patient because Israel will eventually give in and accept a ceasefire.
Israel had in the past staunchly refused to negotiate a ceasefire agreement with Hamas under the pretext that such a deal would allow the movement to regroup and consolidate its grip on the Gaza Strip. In addition, Israel had refused to lift the two-year-old blockade on the Gaza Strip for as long as Hamas remained in power.
But under the terms of the agreement, the violence will stop for six months. Shortly afterwards, Israel would ease its blockade, followed by the further easing of restrictions at cargo border crossings. In the final stage, talks would be conducted about opening the Rafah crossing between the Gaza Strip and Egypt and for a prisoner exchange to free Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit, who has been held by Hamas for over two years.
'The ceasefire grants Hamas a golden opportunity to expand its military build-up for the next round of terror and violence,' said Jonathan Dahoah Halevi, a senior researcher of the Middle East and radical Islam at the Jerusalem Centre for Public Affairs. 'Emulating Hizbollah's strategy, Hamas is striving to acquire longer-range and more destructive missiles to be used for deterrence and as a sword on Israel's neck.'
Halevi described the agreement as an 'important achievement' for Hamas. The Islamist movement, he explained, will gain the recognition it wants as the legitimate ruler of the Gaza Strip. 'Despite the fact that the Israeli government has defined Hamas-ruled Gaza as a hostile entity, Israel agreed to the continuation of trade with it, and even recognised the hostile entity's authority to operate the Rafah crossing. Hamas regards that as immensely important and wants to exploit it as a lever to open the door to official relations with Europe, and to have itself removed from the various lists of terrorist organisations.'
Hamas also appears to have its attention focused on the next Palestinian presidential elections, which are supposed to take place when the term of Mahmoud Abbas expires in less than six months.
Hamas leaders have already made it known that they are planning to contest the vote when and if it takes place. Halevi believes Hamas is liable to claim that, according to Palestinian law, administrative authority should be passed on to the speaker of the parliament, who is a Hamas figure, or should be decided by the parliament itself, where Hamas has an overwhelming majority. 'In other words, for Hamas, the lull in the fighting will permit the movement to prepare the field to take over from Abbas, thereby complementing its military takeover of Gaza,' he added.
Many Israelis are now openly expressing their disappointment with the agreement, dubbing it a 'humiliation' for Israel. 'It's because the national ego is hurt,' said veteran Israeli peace activist Uri Avnery. 'How wonderful it would have been to see the Israeli army in Gaza destroying Hamas, together with the entire city. But instead of the crushing victory, we have something that smacks of a rout. And that in spite of the assertions of those now rooting for reoccupying the Gaza Strip – that at any minute, with just a little more starvation and closure, the population would have rebelled against Hamas.'
top
|