Right since Nepal was declared a republic at the first Constituent Assembly (CA) meeting on May 28, there were rumours that the Nepal Army may align with the king to derail the ongoing process of political transition. The deadlock in the dialogue process among the political parties over the formation of the next government had lent credence to such rumours. However, the fact that king decided not to interfere with the process perhaps shows that he was aware of the wider consensus among parties and people that he had to leave the throne.

However, political developments since his departure had activated the grapevine. This time people were saying it could be the Nepali Congress (NC), the Nepal Army plus the king who may come together to upstage the political process.

Close on the heels of king's exit from the scene, the Maoists had pulled out of the government reducing the NC-led government to a minority. It is well known that the Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (CPN-M) had made a bid for leading the post-election government in Kathmandu after securing largest number of seats in the constituent assembly. However, the Nepali Congress had, at that point, appeared reluctant to let them lead the government under the pretext that the elections were for framing the constitution, hence the existing government should continue.

Interestingly, the two parties even differed over the issue of abolition of monarchy, even when the interim constituent assembly had voted overwhelmingly in favour of it. There were talks of subjecting such a decision to popular referendum – as a clear apology to retain the king as a symbolic head. The May 28 voting on the subject proved that Koirala's sympathies for the king were not in tune with the spirit of the times.

Other issues appeared as stumbling blocks on the way to a consensus on constitution making in Nepal. Some were primarily related to power sharing among political forces, especially over the issue of who would be the next prime minister and who would be the elected president. Koirala was only too eager to nominate himself for the post of president. His supporters made every attempt to persuade the Maoists to elect him to the post. Once bitten over the issue of republic status, the Maoists were twice shy of Koirala this time. Maoist deputy chief Baburam Bhattarai made it very categorical: 'While Koirala should be given a position of honour keeping in mind his contribution to the signing of the peace pact and holding the April election, the post of president should go to someone from civil society.'

As the gulf between NC and CPN-M grew wider, debates over other issues became hotter by the day. Other political parties in the Seven Party Alliance have also been divided over many issues like constitution amendments, make up of the constitutional council and National Security Council (NSC), the provision on formation/termination of the government, integration of Maoists into the army and management of Youth Communist League (YCL), the youth wing of Maoists.

Finally on June 22, the CPN-M pulled out of the inter-party negotiations for consensus over constitution making. The deadlock was reportedly over a minor amendment brought forward by NC that the national security council should have an opposition leader as its member. While the suggestion was in keeping with the democratic traditions, the Maoists picked on this as a move by NC to bring in defeated political forces by the back door, which will lead to deadlocks in NSC and affect national security in the long run.

Following their pullout, the CPN-M engaged successfully in a dialogue with the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist (CPN-UML). The two had decided to go ahead and form a government, even if NC refuses to join them. Media reports also suggested that the CPN-UML has agreed to concede to CPN-M the post of prime minister in return for the post of president for itself.

Having gone through these political bouts Nepal is now critically poised for the formation of a new government. But Koirala is expected to continue till the constituent assembly passes the resolution for election of president by simple majority of the house. He will need to hand in his resignation to the president, who is yet to be elected. Koirala was also functioning as the head of the state.

In the present Constituent Assembly of 601 members, the CPN-M has 220 seats while CPN-UML has 101 seats. Thus between them they have the majority to form the government as well as elect the president. However, there are significant differences between them too over issues like security sector reforms to accommodate Maoists and militant assertions of the YCL, which has sought to dominate the rural political scenario for some time.

There are a whole lot of issues waiting to be addressed effectively by the political parties. If the communists close their ranks and join hands, then Nepal may have a Left-versus-Right divide in days to come. The Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), which claims to represent nearly 40-50 per cent of the population in the Terai region, has now endorsed NC demand that there should be an opposition member in the NSC. There are many in Nepal who believe that both NC and MJF would eventually be brought together by Indian agencies, who want them to team up as an alternative to the Left forces.

The developments in Nepal are being closely monitored by both India and China. Chinese media has followed political developments in Kathmandu with unusual interest in recent days. India is said to have played a critical role in the political process itself. The rise of Maoists, partly enabled by Indian mediation two years ago, is being seen as an unhealthy example especially because of the linkages the Maoists have with Indian Left-wing extremists. Moreover, India suspects Maoists of having behind-the-scene relationship with China, which will take Nepal away from New Delhi's strategic sphere of influence. Many analysts in Nepal thus express the view that India may not allow the ongoing process of reconciliation to succeed if it tilts the balance in favour of the Maoists.

Quite interestingly, Nepalese observers having links with Indian establishment argue otherwise. They point to the willingness of Indian government to recast the India-Nepal treaty and accommodate the concerns of Maoists. They also indicate that apart from some fringe alarmist groups, most of the people in Indian establish-ment agree that the ongoing experiment with democracy in Nepal is an unstoppable exercise and they hope that the new government in Nepal will soon discover the inevitability of being sucked into the Indian orbit in coming days. The fear of China is not too disconcerting for them.

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