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US policy: Deeper into the Quagmire
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McChrystal and the US-led effort in Afghanistan
Stratfor |
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Where global powers converge for the 'Great Game'
G Parthasarathy |
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Globalisation and the border
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Lord Bhikhu Parekh
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The ruler has no immunity from rules
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Faisal Devji, reader at Oxford, describes Pakistan as a proxy battlefield
Shyam Bhatia |
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July 2010
Central Asia
Where global powers converge for the 'Great Game'
As significant developments over recent years in the Central Asian region reflect political rivalries and concerns, Afghanistan remains a high stake for both eastern and western powers.
By G Parthasarathy
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Misguided conquest: the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan was ill-advised and ultimately doomed |
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Speaking at the annual dinner of the Royal Asiatic Society in London in 1908, when Czarist Russia was expanding its influence in Central Asia and the 'Great Game' of jockeying for power and influence in Afghanistan was being played out, Lord Curzon proclaimed: 'If the Central Asian Society exists and is meeting in fifty or a hundred years hence, Afghanistan will be as vital and important a question as it is now.'
His words were prophetic. The Soviet Union disintegrated in December 1991, after the western world chose to bleed it during its ill-advised occupation of Afghanistan. More than a century after Lord Curzon's address, the United States, Russia and China are competing for influence in Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours — Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan. The Fergana Valley straddling Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan has become a focal point of Islamic radicalism, centred round the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, whose cadres have joined the Taliban and al-Qaeda in fighting the Americans in Afghanistan.
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Recent developments in Kyrgyzstan are in no small measure due to the rivalries between Great Powers in the region, though they also indicate that major powers broadly agree that whatever their differences, they should remain united against the spread of Taliban-style extremism in Central Asia. Barely twenty minutes' drive from the Kyrgyz capital of Bishkek is a Russian military base at Kant, described by Russian Defence Minister Ivanov as 'a deterrent to international terrorism'. A short drive away is a neighbouring air base at Manas, leased to the Americans, for their operations in Afghanistan. After the Kyrgyz government threatened to close down the Manas base in February 2009, differences with the Americans were settled following behind-the-scenes tripartite negotiations involving the Russians, Americans and the Kyrgyz. The Russians, however, made their point that the Americans could sustain their military presence in Central Asia only with Russian support. Moreover, while there may be some justification in allegations that the Russians fostered the ouster of former President Bakiyev in April this year, both the Americans and Russians share a common interest in ensuring that the ensuing ethnic violence between the Kyrgyz and Uzbek communities is swiftly ended.
Responding to American moves to dilute their influence in Central Asia, Russia and China established the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia sought to counter efforts to activate NATO along its borders with the establishment of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO). The SCO was founded in 2001 and its members include Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. While the SCO has indicated that it has no plans to become a military bloc, it does recognise that threats of 'terrorism, extremism and separatism' necessitate the involvement of armed forces. India, Pakistan and Iran are 'observers' to the SCO. The SCO has envisaged the establishment of joint energy projects involving the exploration and production of hydrocarbons. With growing doubts about American will and ability to stay the course in Afghanistan, India may well become a member of the SCO in coming months.
Problems of access to the landlocked countries of Central Asia have necessarily limited India's trade and economic cooperation with Central Asia. As Pakistan has refused it transit facilities, India has signed agreements with Iran and Russia for transport corridors to the Central Asian states and the Caspian. Ties with Central Asian States have been strengthened in recent years. Following exchanges of high-level visits, India is providing technical assistance to the Central Asian states in areas ranging from information technology to the pharmaceutical and steel industries. The Zaranj-Delaram road constructed by India in Afghanistan now links India and Afghanistan through the Iranian port of Chah Bahar and provides access to Uzbekistan through Mazar-e-Sharif. Economic ties with Kazakhstan have also grown in recent years. An inter-Governmental Agreement on nuclear cooperation covering the supply of uranium ore by Kazakhstan and the construction of nuclear reactors by India is to be signed shortly, together with a commitment of Indian investment in the mining sector. Moreover, the two countries have agreed to conclude an agreement shortly between India's Oil and Natural Gas Commission and Kaz Munai Gas, on oil exploration and production of the Satpoyev Oil Block. India has depended on the Aini Air Force Base near Dushanbe and an outpost it set up in Farkhor on the Tajik-Afghanistan border, to assist the Northern Alliance and for relief supplies to Afghanistan.
The recently published National Security Doctrine of the Obama Administration states: 'We will seek greater partnership with Russia in confronting violent extremism, especially in Afghanistan'. There is now a growing belief in India that it is crucial to restore peace and stability in Afghanistan for stability and progress throughout the South and Central Asian Regions. New and inclusive diplomatic initiatives are essential to achieve this even in the face of regional and great power rivalries. While it is important for the Americans not to yield to the temptation of quitting before their mission is accomplished, both the US and Russia will have to work together with Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, China, India and Pakistan, quite apart from Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours, to ensure that Afghanistan's territory is not used against others, while guaranteeing that Afghans can run their affairs free from external interference.
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