It is worth noting that there has been no such survey of opinion since the United Nations-brokered ceasefire on January 1 1949 notionally brought the conflict between India and Pakistan to an end. In the meantime the contest has led to thousands of deaths and blighted the lives of millions of Kashmiris without taking any account of the rash of terrorist outrages carried out in recent decades in the name of the dispute.

A poll for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, Chatham House was commissioned by Dr Saif al Islam Qadhafi in the spring of 2009 and took in opinion on both sides of the Line of Control (LOC). The report is titled Kashmir: Paths to Peace.

Not surprisingly, 80 per cent of Kashmiris feel that the dispute affects them personally but what is surprising is the fact that their responses are so nuanced and that distance from the disputed LOC seems to harden attitudes. Those closest to it, and therefore often  more subject to the violence, appear to be more liberal, certainly in terms of opening it up to cross-border exchanges.

But when Kashmiris on either side of the line opine that the dispute is important to them it is often not because they have strong ideological or nationalistic commitments but because they perceive that they suffer economically or from the malign effects of their respective governments.

For the great majority of Kashmiris unemployment is the greatest problem. Sixty-six percent of those in Azad Kashmir (AJK) and 87 per cent in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) on the Indian side of the line complained of it. Perhaps surprisingly for Indian readers, government corruption was reported as a concern in J&K by 68 per cent of respondents and a relatively modest 22 per cent in AJK. More respondents in J&K complained of poor economic development, 45 per cent, than in AJK where 42 per cent noted it. Also significant for the Indian authorities was the 43 per cent complaining of human rights abuses in J&K while a relatively modest 19 per cent complained of that in AJK. In AJK 24 per cent complained of the conflict itself and 36 per cent did so in J&K.

But in the key area of unemployment nine areas on the Pakistani side of the LOC reported rates of dissatisfaction from 80 to 96 per cent. On the Indian side close to the LOC the rate was 87 per cent and 55 per cent for areas of Indian Kashmir more removed from the LOC. In many areas there was a vague awareness that the two sides had been holding talks but detailed knowledge was lacking and only six per cent knew that the negotiations had started in 2003. Almost half of them believed that they had improved the chances of peace while 30 per cent in AJK and 55 per cent of people in J&K thought that they were safer as a result.

The political process gets varying ratings as to its ability to help bring peace on both sides of the divide. Indian Kashmiris appear to have the most faith in their processes and the J&K state assembly elections of 2008 and the national Lok Sabha polls of last year had improved the chances of peace according to 52 per cent and 55 per cent respectively, while in AJK only 41 per cent thought the 2008 Pakistan National Assembly elections had done anything to help the process while even fewer, 34 per cent, thought the AJK assembly elections of 2006 had been of any help. It appears, therefore, that some people on either side of the divide believe that the political process has some contribution to make but the great majority remain to be convinced.

Perhaps the most encouraging aspect for both governments is that only just over a third of those on either side believe that militant violence is the solution to the problem compared with 24 per cent, who thought it would be more likely to move things towards a settlement. In J&K only 20 per cent of respondents thought militant violence would help resolve matters while 39 per cent thought it would be of no assistance. In AJK 37 per cent thought militant violence would help solve the dispute compared to 31 per cent who thought it would make a solution less likely. Overall 34 per cent thought violence would make no difference.

For the future, the polling offered the people a variety of options. For the whole of Kashmir to be independent there was a poll of 43 per cent overall, with a 44 per cent result in AJK and 43 per cent in J&K. But there were large variations in J&K with the Kashmir Valley voting between 75 per cent and 95 per cent for it, while in four divisions of Jammu no-one voted for it at all and in Jammu itself only one per cent was in support. In Ladakh division Leh reported 30 per cent in favour and Kargil 20per cent.

For the whole of Kashmir to join India there was an overall 21 per cent in favour with the obvious variations in voting depending on location. In AJK one per cent were willing to join India while in J&K 28 per cent said they would vote in favour of Delhi. But in J&K there were wide variations between districts. In the Kashmir valley there was only a two per cent vote in favour of India in Baramala while Anantnag recorded 22per cent. In Jammu division the voting ranged from 47 per cent in Jammu to 73 per cent in Udhampur. Punch showed a six per cent favourable vote and Rajauri, zero per cent. In Ladakh there was a 67 per cent vote in Leh and 80 per cent in Kargil.

In the vote to join Pakistan AJK recorded a 50 per cent favourable vote for the whole of J&K to join the Islamic state with Bagh at 64 per cent showing the highest score.

These figures are important because in 1948/49, under the proposed UN plebiscite, there were only two options on offer: the whole of Kashmir joining either India or Pakistan. But, as these figures show today, there is no evidence that either option would obtain more than a quarter of the total vote across the region. For example, even in J&K only 28 per cent voted to join India and even that figure was polarized across different areas. In the Valley of Kashmir only four districts showed a majority in favour of India. And there was even less support for joining Pakistan across the whole of Kashmir, with the highest vote for this option at 50 per cent while in J&K the idea attracted only two per cent support.

The Chatham House poll thus shows that the plebiscite offered in 1948-49 would have little to offer the people of Kashmir today and would make no significant contribution to a solution as there is no clear majority in favour of independence. Independence, then, does not seem to be an option.

Then what about turning the present LOC into a permanent border? Overall this received a mere 14 per cent supporting vote, while joint sovereignty attracted only two per cent. But then, and this is the clincher, only one per cent voted in favour of the status quo.

In other words, if there is one thing that Kashmiris are agreed upon, it is that they do not like what they have got. But they have no clear idea of what they want for their future. No wonder, then, that they have been so easily manipulated by forces internal and external in the past.

But there are a number of ways in which they believe things can be improved. They focus mainly on the security situation. And the first of those centres on the removal of mines. Seventy-six per cent of people across the area support the removal of all mines on both sides of the LOC. Even more remarkable is the desire to remove weaponry from the equation: 56 per cent would support the removal of all weapons from both sides of the border. The actual figures were 71 per cent in AJK and 50 per cent in J&K. 

It is also widely believed that the removal of both Indian and Pakistani security forces would help bring a solution. Some two-thirds in J&K think the removal of Indian security forces would help.

In AJK 78 per cent think the removal of Indian forces would speed peace but 52 per cent in AJK also think the removal of Pakistani forces would help, while the figure in J&K increases to 82 per cent.

.

. top