Zardari 's recent 62-point constitutional agenda, which promises to put the parliamentary system back on track by clipping the powers of the President, makes him look quite resolute and firm. He has also asserted that his party had never held Musharraf's election legitimate and would rather "walk him away" than "impeach him away".

Till now analysts suspected that Zardari's anti-Musharraf stance in the public was a mere façade which sought to hide his backroom deals with the Presidential office. The timing and the pace of the pro-Zardari judicial verdicts clearing earlier allegations of his involvement in a number of cases, many argued, could not have been possible without such a tacit understanding. The reconciliation efforts initiated by Benazir Bhutto provided grind to the grist mill.

Nawaz Sharif had thus emerged as the lone warrior, more concerned with principles than power. Indeed the impression gathered from talking to insiders was that Nawaz's party, PNL (N) was fast displacing Zardari's PPP even in rural Sind. The fate of the coalition was hung in balance as Nawaz decide to recall his ministers over the judges' issue.

Zardari also appeared reluctant to wholesale reinstatement of judges removed by Musharraf on November 3, 2007, even if Aitzaz Ahsan, one of the party veterans continued to roar from the treetops that he would go the whole hog over the issue. The PPP schizophrenia over the judges' issue was also cynically interpreted as a tactical move to confound the onlooker and retain political hold over the masses.

The PPP is now struggling to remove the sense of ambivalence from its stand on the issue of restoration of the judges and Musharraf with the 62 point constitutional revision package which has been vetted by the PPP committee. This will soon be run through the coalition partners.

The package goes beyond the issue of restoration of judges. This is deliberately designed to steal the thunder from the sails of Nawaz Sharif at one level and raise the level of debate on democratisation in Pakistan on the other. The 62 point agenda cleverly sidelines the Muree understanding and builds upon the multi-party consensus embodied in the Charter of Democracy.

It seeks to take away article 58 (2) B from the President, limit a person to hold the office of president for only two terms, and restore some of the important executive powers, currently enjoyed by the President, to the Prime Minister. It also proposes to change the name of NWFP to Pakhtunkhwa to meet the demand of the Pakhtun-nationalist Awami National Party. Over the judges' issue the draft proposes to raise the age limit to 68 for the Supreme Court judges and fix a three-year term for the Chief Justice.

Zardari has emphasised that he would not like to impose this draft on the nation and would accommodate views of others as well. He has also explained that he would run the proposed package through his coalition partners as well as with the President.

The spirit in which the proposals have been made shows that there is a continuity of the Benazir's line of thinking in PPP. Be cautious, pragmatic and reconciliatory in your approach vis-à-vis the entrenched military establishment. Don't lose the ground you have acquired. While the top leadership adopts a careful position on most of the issues, Aitzaz Ahsan has been allowed to go ahead with his uncompromising and revolutionary agenda to keep up the pressure on the Presidency and the establishment.
The PML(N), by contrast, has adopted an uncompromising attitude vis-à-vis the Presidency which has helped it to reap a good electoral harvest. However, it has not allowed its enthusiasm to run riot and lead to dissolution of the coalition which is the only bulwark against Musharraf. It has allowed PPP to spell out its mind clearly on the issue of restoration of democracy. The plot to clip the wings of President Musharraf may thus be cooking at various levels.

It is the counter-plot that has started attracting the attention of many analysts in Pakistan now. Musharraf has, of late, sought to assert himself quietly by raising the issue of the economic slow down with the Prime Minister and reiterating forcefully that he has been constitutionally elected as the President of Pakistan and had legitimate rights to conduct the affairs of the state as the chief executive of the country.

There are rumours that the ongoing competition for power between the political forces and the Presidency is being carefully monitored by the Army. If the situation worsens then the army may take over. The threat (and possibility) of army take over is thus being projected as the only deterrent against an insidious open war between the political forces and the Presidency.

Some analysts even suggest that the incumbent army chief has adopted a soft line on the political forces and has quietly endorsed their agenda to weaken the institution of President. The argument being made here is that the army chief knows that the influence of the army in politics does not depend on the office of Presidency and would rather like to have a tame president to strengthen the position of army in the power equations in Pakistan.

This has given rise to speculation that Musharraf may stage yet another coup within the army and suspend General Pervez Kiyani and replace him with his crony, Lt Gen Nadeem Taj, who is at present heading the ISI. The constitutional arrangement as it stands today gives Musharraf enough power to do that. However, Musharraf will have to think twice before taking such a step because this has the potential to snowball into a crisis which he may not be able to control. The impression from Islamabad is that Kiyani has substantial backing amongst the corps commanders and may withstand any such attempted coup. With the political forces expected to back him up on this issue, Musharraf can only do this at his own peril.

The moot question now is what the army thinks of the proposals put forward by Zardari. Kiyani has so far demonstrated his willingness to give political forces a chance. There is a general feeling in Pakistan that Kiyani will keep the army out of the power struggle which may intensify in the coming days. Army will be the clear winner if Musharraf and Zardari-plus-Nawaz checkmate one another.

Will Musharraf ask Kiyani to wield his influence on the political forces, if the powers that he has arrogated to himself get washed away by a constitutional amendment? Will such amendment be possible with Musharraf's forces still holding enough strength in the upper house to frustrate any such bills?

Dr. Ashok K Behuria is a Research Fellow at Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi.