Despite its limitations, this is an encouraging development, if only because the traditionally brittle relationship was threatened by Pakistan's two serious violations of a compre-hensive cease-fire between the two countries that had miraculously held for nearly five years. Simultaneously, there was a perceptible increase in the infiltration into Kashmir of militants belonging to the Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and such other Pakistani outfits. An ominously dark cloud thus cast its shadow over the visit to Islamabad of Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee. At the visit's end, however, both sides were satisfied that cease-fire as well as the peace process would continue. It was also decided that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh would pay a long-awaited visit to Pakistan before the year-end.

The United Progressive Alliance government's critics do not share official optimism. They maintain that the Congress-led UPA is “soft on terror,” and they are particularly incensed by the reference in the Indo-Pakistani joint statement to the “joint anti-terror mechanism” set by the two countries last year. How could the sponsors of terror be India's partners in combating it, they argue.

Mukherjee's hosts gave him clear enough indications that they were preoccupied with domestic developments. This makes sound sense. For, the newly elected coalition government is on the verge of collapse over the issue of the 60 judges General Musharraf had dismissed and put under house arrest during the Emergency he imposed in November last. If all is not lost yet, it is because the Pakistani Prime Minister, Yousuf Gilani, has not yet accepted the resignations of all the ministers owing allegiance to former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz). Sharif also says that he does not want to bring the government down because he does not wish to “play into the hands of the anti-democratic forces”. But this willing-to-wound-afraidto-strike situation cannot last for long.

In any case, Sharif's differences with Asif Zardari - the widower of the assassinated Benazir Bhutto, and the real power behind the government, led by BB's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) over the “Judges' Issue” are so acute as to be unbridgeable.

Sharif wants the restoration of all the sacked judges including the former Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who defied Musharraf at the height of the latter's power and thus became an icon with the people immediately and through a parliamentary resolution, followed by an executive order. Zardari argues that this would be unconstitutional, and therefore the dismissed judges should be brought back only through a constitutional amendment. Of course, he knows as well as does Sharif that it would be difficult to muster the requisite two-thirds majority for this process. Moreover, Sharif wants all the judges appointed by Musharraf after the “mass dismissals” to be sent out at once. Zardari insists that in the higher judiciary the old and new should “co-exist”.

Behind the seemingly legal arguments lies a naked and relentless pursuit of rival personal agendas. Sharif wants Musharraf to be shown the door without any further delay, and he is convinced that a bench headed by Iftikhar Chaudhuri would declare the former General's election as president illegal. Both Zardari and Musharraf thus find that they have a shared interest in delaying the restoration of judges and preventing that of “out-of-control” Iftikhar Chaudhri. Musharraf is keen on clinging to the presidency even with reduced powers for as long as he can. Zardari is afraid that Chaudhri and his colleagues might also throw out the National Reconciliation Ordinance under which all charges of corruption and worse against him and his late wife have been withdrawn.

That is precisely where the United States, or rather the Bush administration, comes in. Soon after the memorable February 18 election, Nawaz Sharif had gruffly rebuffed the US deputy secretary of state, John Negroponte, when the visiting dignitary had tried to advise the new coalition about the policy it should follow towards Musharraf whom the Bush crowd still considers its “best bet”. Less than three months later even the assistant secretary of state Richard Boucher is listened to with respect by the new Prime Minister. As a Pakistani friend put it, the old dictum that three A's Allah, America and Army would always be the final arbiters of Pakistan's destiny remains true.

What the Americans want is that Nawaz Sharif, whom they dislike intensely, should be marginalized and the present coalition replaced by a “dream team” of Musharraf, Zardari, the “king's party”, the Pakistan Muslim League (Q), and the MQM, the party of the Mohajirs as the migrants from India and their descendants are known. The trouble however is that Musharraf's name is mud. A very large number of Pakistanis distrust Zardari and his strongest asset, the memory of his martyred wife, is on the wane. Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif's popularity is visibly on the increase. He indeed hopes to be in power after a fresh election that, many think, is not far off.

The new Army Chief, General Ashfaq Kiyani, is taking pains to distance the army from politics. Mukherjee was told that Pakistan's army that has ruled the country for half its existence is turning “apolitical”. Yet, at one stage even Gen. Kiyani had felt the need to remind the politicians that the armed forces were not impervious to the feelings of the Pakistani people about Kashmir. This might explain why, even during the Mukherjee visit, Gilani spoke about the UN resolutions on Kashmir, which Musharraf had realised, could no longer be invoked. What has dismayed many Pakistanis is that Gilani not only visited the GHQ but, accompanied by Zardari, he had also gone to the headquarters of the ISI, the notorious intelligence agency that has sponsored and guided jihadi terrorism in India and Afghanistan.

Keen observers of the Pakistani scene believe that the “wild card” in the pack in Pakistan is the association of lawyers that had led the powerful agitation against Musharraf's decision to throw out Chief Justice Chaudhuri, and is now threatening to “re-launch” it. The Army's position seems to be to “sit back” and let the civilian government deal with the demonstrations and violence on the streets. Nor is this all by any means.

Pakistan faces an acute shortage of food. Its economy is going through a slump. The external value of the Pakistani rupee is declining, and its problems on the Afghan border are piling up, making the Americans very unhappy. Altogether, the country faces the prospect of a long, hot summer. No wonder the euphoria generated by the election and its result has all but evaporated.