June 2009

Manmohan and Obama

Great expectations

The task before the two leaders is to deliver on the demands of the times and not get trapped by obsessions of left or right.

By Abid Shah

FOR A MEMORABLE TENURE President Obama and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have to motivate rather than force or dictate (economic) recovery

Indians neither missed nor tried to evade the pangs of worldwide economic downturn amid the hubbub created by the recently concluded general elections. Instead, they preferred to trigger a turnaround by voting and putting Manmohan Singh in saddle once again and more firmly this time than before. His precariousness is almost over. Yet expectations from him, his party, coalition and colleagues have gone up manifold.

He begins a fresh tenure soon after the U.S. President Barak Obama's 100-day stint subsided. Yet, this puts the same ritual's burden upon

 
 

the Indian Prime Minister more conspicuously than before and he has to face the 100-day test as well, not just before Indians but observers watching him from all corners of the world. This is going to be more so if the word of the famed boss of U.S.-based Forbes Media, Steve Forbes, is to be taken note of.

Steve Forbes was recently in Mumbai to launch the Indian edition of his business magazine Forbes along with an Indian partner where in an interview given to a newspaper he remarked, 'I hope the Indian Prime Minister will visit President Obama and assist in his educating process.'

Steve is dead against Obama's protectionism. Like many prominent   and highly placed Americans, he sees a  tilt towards the left in Obama's rhetoric as also in some of his actions and plans. And since Manmohan Singh has always been viewed as messiah of economic liberalisation and reform, Steve apparently holds him in higher esteem than the new American President. Yet the fact remains that both Obama and Manmohan have been trying to make a break from the dominant though diverse trends that have historically been gripping their economies. And as is the case with most histories, they become commands  in their own right and  seldom recognise demands that may confront them.

Thus, the task before the U.S. as well as India is to come to terms with the demands of the time rather than being trapped by obsessions coming from the left or the right. Often electoral victories confuse issue rather than resolving them. Indian voters have indeed pushed both left and right to virtual redundancy if not repudiation. Both right-wing BJP and Communist leftists are down if not out. And this goes against ideological expediency where the cost could be workaday life's necessities. The last is directly voters' compulsion which not only can propel a leadership like that of Manmohan Singh but can also rev up industry and similar wheels of growth and progress only if calculated pedagogy does not come between the two.
What can really make a memorable tenure beyond just 100 days, whether in case of Obama or Manmohan, are efforts on their part to motivate rather than force or dictate recovery where stakes are not just their own countries' but of the larger world, given the interdependence among its numerous divides.

Forbes in the same interview said this differently by calling wealth as not just physical but also metaphysical. What he meant is that riches are never static as they move, relocate and find their destination (where Forbes can periodically revise the list of world's wealthiest persons. Over the years new peers are born and join billionaires' club). Yet the point is whether wealth carries and spills over progress through its course from one destination to the other or whether it does so when it grows without traversing so much. This is where not only those who guide such a course of riches or its growth become important but their ideology, persuasions, moorings and policies too come under public gaze and scrutiny.

Thus, the habit of the 100-day cut off date for assessing any government that takes charge came into vogue first in Britain and later elsewhere. Obama has passed the mark leaving people still guessing about him and his moves. Seeing a worldwide interest in this, the countdown in India began within 48 hours of the swearing in of the new government. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee met Finance Secretary, Ashok Chawla, and Chief Economic Adviser, Arvind Virmani, on May 24 to discuss the thrust of the new government's economic policy which can tackle the current slowdown.
It was decided that the finance minister in consultation with prime minister would prepare an approach paper that will address the problem and set the agenda. The next budget will be guided by this paper and so will be the government's 100-day action plan where employment growth, exports, manufacturing sector and infrastructure are going to get priority and find focus.

Even as these efforts are on there is demand for a greater degree of reform in order to further open up key sectors like banking and insurance to potential investors both domestic and foreign. It is in mark departure to a stunned silence about this in the wake of the September 2008 recession that hit America first and other parts of the globe later. Only the Indian Communists said that not only they feel vindicated but were also able to save the country by cautioning Manmohan Singh about disinvesting banks and corporations.

Since left has lost this time the fetters put by them to stall reforms are supposed to have been knocked off, igniting a clamour for further liberalisation of the economy. This is in sharp contrast to what is happening in America where bailout packages released by treasury accompany government nominees as directors to oversee their use by the beneficiaries. This blurs the distinction between right and left affecting not only America but also other countries that do business with the U.S.

Obama's policy threatens to reverse the outsourcing process in business for he wants to create more jobs back home. India has been a beneficiary of the BPO phenomenon for about a decade or so.  The software and the BPO boom not only created jobs in India but also large expatriate communities were brought to places like Bangalore and Indian companies like Infosys opened shops in U.S. as well.

Infosys Chief Executive Kris Gopalakrishnan was in the U.S. recently. On May 21 he told media in Seattle that Infosys wanted to add more than 100 new employees right now as part of a big U.S. expansion in anticipation of growth resuming in 2010. Before the end of the next year, Infosys plans to hire about 1,000 personnel in U.S. This amid a job market gloom holds promise for U.S., which should somewhat allay the fears of U.S. policy makers about creation of jobs in their country. Already more than 10 per cent Infosys staff of over 100,000 are based in U.S. and the company is listed at NASDAQ.

Such close links of Indian and U.S. economies are to be saved from the ideological upheavals brought by current economic crisis. Both Obama as well as Manmohan Singh have been voted by their respective electorate to primarily tackle this crisis and not to promote this or that ideology.

In West Bengal the left tumbled while trying to shake off its ideological traps in order to become investor savvy. The opposition by Congress' offshoot, Trinamool Congress, did not allow this through an agitation against special economic zones where ideologies were swapped between the Congress' offshoot party on the one hand and Communists on the other.

The local ire thus generated against the left has catapulted Congress to power at the Centre. This can well be inevitable in an electoral battle or while keeping an eye upon it but cannot serve the purpose of developing a province or a state. This calls for building a national consensus that can be achieved only through imagination, resilience, focus on development, creation of jobs and trying for collective good. It remains the key to India's development at home and contributing its bit in tackling the economic crisis dogging America, West and other parts of the world

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