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June 2010

India and Pakistan

India cautious on resumption of dialogue with Pakistan

As India remains sceptical about changes in US policy in dealing with insurgents operating from Pakistan, future dialogue between the two South Asian neighbours looks tentative at best.

By G Parthasarathy
Special public prosecutor Ujjwal Nikam addressing the media outside a fast track court after Ajmal Amir Kasab (inset) was sentenced to death for 26/11 Mumbai carnage which has been a stumbling block in the Indo-Pak talks

On May 6, 2010, Ajmal Amir Kasab, the lone surviving gunman from the Mumbai carnage of November 26, 2008, in which 177 people were gunned down, was sentenced to death by a Mumbai Court. The Court also concluded that the carnage was the outcome of a conspiracy hatched in Pakistan and named twenty co-conspirators, including the Lashkar-e-Taiba Chief Hafiz Mohammed Saeed and Lieutenant Colonel R Sadatullah, a serving officer of the Pakistan Army's Corps of Signals. Barely a week earlier, on May 1, an unexploded bomb had been discovered in Times Square, New York. Investigations led to the arrest of a naturalized American of Pakistani origin, Faisal Shahzad, who soon confessed that he had been trained and motivated by the Pakistani Taliban to carry out the attack. Unlike their reaction after the Mumbai carnage, where every effort was made to erase evidence that the ten terrorists involved had come from Pakistan, Pakistan acted immediately to arrest those the Americans claimed had colluded with Shahzad when he had visited Karachi. 

Strong evidence emerged that Shahzad had visited North Waziristan where the 'Haqqani Taliban network' of the Afghan Taliban is located, together with the al-Qaeda and the Pakistani Taliban. American anger at the refusal of the Pakistan army to act against the infamous Haqqani network was soon publicly voiced.

 
 

US attorney General Eric Holder asserted that if Pakistan did not take 'appropriate action' against the Taliban elements located on its soil, the US would do so. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned: 'Some Pakistani officials know more about al-Qaeda and the Taliban than they actually let on. I believe that somehow in the [Pakistan] Government, there are people who know where bin Laden, al-Qaeda, Mullah Omar and the Afghan Taliban leadership are.' Mrs Clinton said that the US expected more cooperation from Pakistan in helping bring to justice, capture or kill those who attacked it on 9/11, adding: 'We cannot tolerate having people encouraged, trained and sent from Pakistan to attack the US.' National Security Adviser General James Jones and CIA Director Leon Panetta visited Islamabad and Rawalpindi to call for action against Taliban safe havens in Pakistan.

Will these developments lead to changes in American policies on dealing with Taliban insurgents operating from Pakistani soil? Observers in New Delhi are sceptical that there will be any change in American policy, in which the Generals in the Pentagon, who are said to have the 'ear of President Obama', now appear to have a dominant say. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Admiral Mullen and the Commander of the US Central Command General David Petraeus appear to have persuaded President Obama that they will work on Pakistani Army Chief General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani on a 'soldier to soldier' basis and persuade Kayani to crackdown on the Taliban and their allies, including al-Qaeda and Punjabi militant groups like Jaish-e-Mohammed. There are few takers for the efficacy of this approach in New Delhi. It only appears to have persuaded Pakistan's Generals that the Americans need their support so much that they have no option but to turn a blind eye to the ISI backing Islamic radicals who attack American soldiers in Afghanistan. The Americans appear to be running so scared of General Kayani that General Stanley McChrystal publicly denied that he had demanded General Kayani clamp down on radical groups in North Waziristan, in the aftermath of the Times Square terrorism episode. Indians are, therefore, highly sceptical of assurances that the Americans will help out in pressuring Pakistan to clamp down on the real masterminds behind the 26/11 terrorist outrage in Mumbai.

India's External Affairs Minister Mr SM Krishna will visit Islamabad on July 17. His visit will be preceded by a visit to Pakistan by Indian Home Minister P Chidambaram, who is scheduled to attend a SAARC Ministerial meeting there. Mr Chidambaram will be accompanied by Indian Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao. There are already differences between the two sides on the agenda for any future dialogue. While External Affairs Minister SM Krishna has made it clear that forthcoming talks are primarily meant to remove the causes of 'distrust' between the two countries, Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureishi claimed that in forthcoming talks between Foreign Ministers and Foreign Secretaries, all issues of concern including Kashmir, Siachen, Sir Creek, river waters and people-to-people contacts would be discussed. Qureishi brushed aside India's concerns about terrorism, glibly claiming that terrorism is a 'global' concern, which would be best addressed collectively.

The Taliban operating out of safe havens in Pakistan has been reinforced by religious radicals linked to ISI-supported militant groups, in Pakistan's Punjab Province. There are serious doubts about the will and ability of Pakistan's armed forces to meet these challenges. Unlike their elders, younger Islamic radicals in Pakistan have no qualms in confronting the armed forces. Moreover, the writ of the Pakistani State in its volatile Northwest has been steadily eroded, as Taliban diktats — including a ban on music, radio, cinemas and televisions, the compulsory growing of beards, restrictions on the movement of women and a ban on schools for girls — remain the order of the day across virtually the entire 'Khyber Pakhtunkhwa', a province bordering Afghanistan. Pakistan's armed forces appear set to pay the price of running with the Taliban hare, while pretending to hunt with the American hound, as India's western neighbourhood heads for more turbulent times.

 

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