Sri Lanka's Army commander as the best in the world and that foreign military powers are looking to Sri Lanka for lessons in military success.

Although relatively small and distant from the power centres of the world, Sri Lanka has frequently been an object of international scrutiny for the best of reasons. In the 1960s and 70s, the country was studied on account of its social welfare system that enabled the people to enjoy a quality of life that exceeded its relatively low per capita income. However, after 1980 international attention turned less favourable with the rise of the ethnic conflict. The flow of refugees abroad and reports of human rights abuses involving the ethnic minority made Sri Lanka's reputation fall in the estimation of the international community.

Today, one of the stories doing the rounds in conservative circles in the world, epitomised by the Wall Street Journal, is that of the effectiveness of military solutions. Military solutions are popular with those who are powerful because it means that they do not need to change. The other, who challenges, is destroyed, so there is no need to change. The stakes are high. A new U.S. president is about to deliver on his pledge to give a new direction to his country in both its domestic and foreign policy. Sri Lanka has been thrust on the international scene as an ideological support case for those who believe in military solutions to terrorism.

However, many of those who praise the Sri Lankan government for its military success seem to be glossing over its high human costs. Most government spokespersons claim, both to the domestic and international media, that the military operations have been clean with relatively few civilian casualties. But those on the ground contend that the reality is otherwise. The plight of the civilians trapped in the war zones where the war is being fought is horrific. There are reports of several hundreds of civilian casualties. Perhaps for this reason, the government has restricted independent media and international humanitarian organisations from going into the battle zones alleging bias on their part and also a desire to keep them out of harm's way.

The trapped population is said to be anywhere between 200,000 to 300,000, with the government giving the lesser figure and Tamil and humanitarian sources giving the higher one. The presence of these civilians in the last territory controlled by the LTTE will necessarily slow down the progress of the Sri Lankan military, which will be constrained in its ability to use its superior firepower. On the other hand, by not permitting the civilians to leave, and even shooting those who try to leave, the LTTE is clearly in violation of international law. In effect, they are holding the people hostage, and hostage-takers put forward their conditions for the release of their hostages.

In these circumstances securing the safety of the trapped civilians is a priority which requires a negotiated movement of people under the auspices of internationally recognised organisations such as the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). Consequently, several local and international organisations, including some foreign governments, have called for the declaration of a humanitarian truce for a temporary period to facilitate the movement of the trapped civilians. Those who issue such calls do so at the risk of being labelled as LTTE supporters by the government and the nationalist media, a very grave danger that can lead to death threats and to being declared persona non grata in this time of heightened nationalist sentiment.

Inevitably in the absence of independent monitors in the battle zones, both sides can find it easy to blame the other for the latest atrocity and try to get away with it. Partisan interpretations of what is happening on the ground are exacerbating tensions and hatreds between the ethnic communities. The clearest manifestations of ethnic polarisation are in internet communications being exchanged by those who live abroad, and who do not have to face the direct consequences of their opinions. On the other hand, within Sri Lanka, dissenting voices that seek to give priority to civilian concerns are intimidated or totally silenced by the impunity that exists, which has seen hundreds of assassinations, abductions and disappearances.

There is growing international concern about the human rights and humanitarian situation in the country. The UN Secretary General has said that Sri Lanka's humanitarian crisis is an under reported one. The British government recently appointed a special envoy to Sri Lanka to address this crisis, which was rejected by the Sri Lankan government on the grounds that it was a unilateral action. This intervention shows the degree of concern amongst countries that have long been supportive of Sri Lanka's development. In view of these pressures the government needs to reconsider its apparent policy of eliminating the last Tiger by military means even as the humanitarian cost of this strategy mounts.

What Sri Lanka needs for a stable and lasting peace is a political solution that is fair for all communities, and is perceived as such by them. The challenge for peace- making in Sri Lanka is to overcome the two main obstacles to such a political solution. These two obstacles are Sinhalese nationalism in which the ethnic majority sees Sri Lanka as a Sinhalese country and seeks to impose its own vision of a political solution upon the ethnic minorities. The other obstacle is the unwillingness of the LTTE to accept anything less than a separate Tamil state under its own leadership.

The ongoing military battles being fought in the north may get rid of one of these obstacles. The government's attempt is to militarily eliminate the proto-structures of a separate state that exist in the north, as was done in the east two years ago. The loss of the outer form of a separate state, such as their office buildings and administrative apparatus, might compel the LTTE to have a more realistic assessment of the contours of a political solution. If the present leadership is not prepared to be realistic, but is determined to continue to take the Tamil people to their doom, this can even lead to further splits within the organisation.

The problem, however, is that the very process of a military victory by the government may lead to the strengthening of the other obstacle to a political solution that is fair for all communities. This obstacle is Sinhalese nationalism that claims Sri Lanka to be a Sinhalese country, in which the ethnic majority has the power to impose their own vision of a political solution upon the ethnic minorities. Unless the government is prepared to accept the reality that Sri Lanka is a multi-ethnic society, this will be a recipe for continued ethnic strife in the years to come.

The main reason that the LTTE was banned internationally as a terrorist organisation was its disregard for human life and for human rights. At the present time the government is strong in its military victories over the LTTE. But these triumphs are coming at the cost of even the most basic of human rights of large numbers of innocent Tamil people. The perils of overkill that doomed the LTTE must forewarn the government which was mandated to look after the interests of all sections of the Sri Lankan people.

The likely scenario in the days and weeks ahead is a continuation of the full- scale effort by the government to enter into the remaining LTTE-held territory and take it over in the conviction that this will lead to the final elimination of the LTTE. The price paid by Tamil civilians will be incidental to the main goal of defeating the LTTE. This will not bode well for future peace and reconciliation in Sri Lanka. The worst fears of the Tamil people that they are not considered citizens with equal rights to life, property and freedom will be borne out in the last battle to be fought unless the priorities of the government and LTTE change even at this late hour.

Jehan Perera is a well known commentator on ethnic affairs in Sri Lanka.

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