The U.S. media reported that CIA would want to interrogate him at the Bagram airbase. Sections of the American media have been reporting (while quoting U.S. officials) that Pakistan provided access to the Americans to interrogate Baradar after some delay and that too in the presence of Pakistani investigators.

With pressure piling up, Pakistan may find it difficult to say no to the U.S. for long. But until now it is sending mixed signals, even though Pakistan's Interior Minister Rahman Malik initially denied Baradar's arrest and then not only confirmed the arrest but added that the government could consider handing over the top Taliban leader to Afghanistan.

However, there has been speculation that Pakistan may, as part of a deal, demand from Kabul the expulsion or delivery of Pakistani Baloch separatists who have been given refuge by Afghanistan. Also, it was speculated that Pakistan may demand delivery of Pakistanis accused of anti-state activities and now hiding in Afghanistan. The Afghan government is unlikely to hand over Pakistani Baloch leaders to Islamabad as it would be against the traditional policy of Kabul to give refuge to Baloch and Pashtun politicians, intellectuals and others who cross over to Afghanistan to escape persecution. Pakistan would also have to consider the negative impact of this change in policy on its relations with the Afghan Taliban if it agrees to hand over Baradar and other Afghan Taliban leaders to Afghanistan. Though Pakistan in the past handed over a number of Afghan Taliban and other opposition figures to Kabul, they were relatively little known and not as important as Baradar.

Another new development is the order by the Lahore High Court to the Pakistan government that the five Afghan Taliban leaders arrested recently from Karachi, Nowshera and other places should not be handed over to any other country till the court's decision on a petition filed by a lawyer Khalid Khwaja, a former ISI official considered close to the Islamic and militant groups. Besides Baradar, the other four named in the petition were Afghan Taliban's eastern zone head Mullah Abdul Kabir, Taliban 'shadow governors' Mullah Abdul Salam for northern Kunduz province and Mullah Mir Mohammad for neighbouring Baghlan province and one Amir Muawiya, who in local media reports was variously mentioned as both an Afghan and Pakistani national.

The court's order without giving any time-frame bound Pakistan government not to decide the fate of the Taliban leaders until the petition was decided. The same lawyer had earlier obtained stay order from another superior court regarding the five Muslim Americans arrested a few months ago in Sargodha in Pakistan's Punjab province, restraining the Pakistan government from delivering them to the U.S. The five young men were allegedly in Pakistan to establish contact with militant groups and receive military training.

There is still no confirmation of the arrest of Mullah Kabir, who served as deputy prime minister and governor of two provinces, Logar and Nangarhar, during Taliban rule. Afghan Taliban sources are saying that after several days of wait and uncertainty they have finally established contact with Mullah Kabir, who according to sections of the U.S. media had been captured by the Pakistani intelligence in Nowshera near Peshawar. Taliban were earlier saying they had lost contact with Mullah Kabir and that they feared he had been captured. But now the Afghan Taliban sources are claiming that he is a free man and has resumed work as Taliban commander for Afghanistan's eastern zone comprising Nangarhar, Kunar, Laghman and Nuristan provinces.

The details of Mullah Kabir going missing and then re-emerging aren't known but it seems strange that the unnamed U.S. officials were telling their media that he has been captured by Pakistani intelligence agents while the Pakistanis weren't saying anything. Even now sections of the U.S. media are insisting that seven out of 15 members of the Taliban Leadership Council or Rahbari Shura, also known as Quetta Shura, have been arrested and were in custody of Pakistani authorities. Afghan government sources are passing on the same information to the media. However, neither the Pakistani authorities nor the Afghan Taliban are confirming this claim.

The arrests of Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistan have come as a surprise to both foreign and Pakistani observers of the situation in the so-called Af-Pak region. Despite U.S. pressure, Pakistan during the past eight years arrested a small number of Afghan Taliban, mostly lesser known and unimportant ones. Islamabad has consistently denied the presence of top Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda leaders in Pakistan. However, there is no denying the fact that several Al Qaeda members have been killed and captured in Pakistan by U.S. drone attacks or in military operations by the Pakistani security forces. The capture of Mullah Baradar and others have also belied Pakistan's claim that the top Afghan Taliban leaders weren't present on its soil.

Those interpreting the arrests of Afghan Taliban leaders in Pakistan as a change of policy by Islamabad believe that the country's powerful military was positioning itself for the evolving situation in Afghanistan in case the U.S.-led Nato forces start withdrawing from there in 2011 and in the event of peace and power-sharing talks with the Taliban. Pakistan has been offering its services to try and persuade the Afghan Taliban to agree to peace talks with the Afghan government and the U.S. and its allies. President Karzai would prefer Saudi Arabia to lead any peace talks between his government and the Taliban, but Pakistan's role would remain relevant and crucial in bringing the Mullah Mohammad Omar-led Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table.

The U.S. has obliged Pakistan and won its grudging appreciation after hunting down and killing top Pakistani Taliban leaders including Baitullah Mehsud, possibly his successor Hakimullah Mehsud whose fate is still a matter of speculation, Haji Omar, Toofan Wazir and Qari Zafar, leader of the so-called Punjabi Taliban from Pakistan's biggest province, Punjab. Some of these Pakistani Taliban commanders were the enemies of both Pakistan and the U.S. as Qari Zafar was involved in the suicide bombing at the American consulate in Karachi some years ago and Hakimullah Mehsud was believed to have provided logistics support to the Jordanian suicide bomber, Dr Humman Khalil al-Balawi, who attacked the CIA's secret base in Afghanistan's Khost province last December and killed eight American spies. By eliminating wanted Pakistani militants through its lethal drone programme, the U.S. is earning the gratitude of Pakistan government and succeeding in earning greater cooperation from Islamabad in the 'war on terror'.

However, Pakistan would not like to completely end its contacts with the Afghan Taliban and unconditionally support the U.S. agenda in the region. There is a feeling in Pakistan that the country cannot afford to alienate the Afghan Taliban due to the fact that Afghanistan's powerful Northern Alliance comprising mostly non-Pashtun groups and most components of the Karzai government weren't friendly towards Islamabad. In this uncertain situation, Pakistan would like to wait and see before deciding whether it should fully abandon the Afghan Taliban and go along with the U.S. plans for the region.

Pakistan is also anxious about India's growing influence in Afghanistan. The February 26 suicide bombing in Kabul targeting mostly Indians came a day after the first meeting of the foreign secretaries of India and Pakistan since the Mumbai terror attacks of November 2008. The Kabul bombing could again create tension and increase mistrust between Islamabad and New Delhi and derail their just-revived peace talks. Though the foreign secretaries meeting in New Delhi didn't achieve much and no dates for the next meeting or revival of the composite dialogue between the two sides was agreed, the fact that they met after a long time raised hopes and was welcomed in both countries.

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