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May 2010

UK elections

South-Asian voters key factor in UK election

As the Liberal Democrats rise unexpectedly in opinion polls during the run-up to the general election, Shyam Bhatia considers the role of South Asian voters and candidates.

By Shyam Bhatia

Conservative party leader, David Cameron (left), Liberal Democrat leader, Nick Clegg (centre), and Prime Minister, and leader of the ruling Labour Party, Gordon Brown, participating in the second of three live televised debates in Bristol

UK-based South Asians, who represent more than 40 per cent of voters in 25 constituencies, could play a key role in deciding which political party forms the next British government following this year's May 6 General Election.

Research into these South Asian voters — Indians, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans — has been carried out by Professor Muhammad Anwar of Warwick University, who says that the UK's ethnic minorities are still 'massively undervalued and under-represented'. Yet at the same time, Anwar notes, the ethnic minority vote will be more important than ever in deciding the election outcome.

Anwar's findings are especially relevant as opinion polls for much of April suggest that Labour and the Conservative opposition are only a few points from each other as far as the affections of the voting public are concerned. Conservative leader David Cameron has managed to stay ahead of Labour's Gordon Brown, but his lead is so small as to cast serious doubt on his party gaining sufficient seats to claim victory.


 
 

The surprise element in this election race has been the rise and rise of the Liberal Democrats under the leadership of Nick Clegg. The party's prospects have been transformed by Mr Clegg's successful participation in televised political debates with both Brown and Cameron. So successful was Clegg's television performance that one   national newspaper saw him as the most popular party leader since Winston Churchill.

South Asians are among the most enthusiastic supporters of the Lib Dems, but none so far has managed to enter parliament under Lib Dem colours. The vast majority of MPs in the last parliament belonged to the ruling Labour Party. They included the late Ashok Kumar, Marsha Singh, Parmjit Dhanda, Keith Vaz and the late Piara Singh Khabra, the MP for Ealing Southall, who was subsequently replaced by Virendra Sharma.

Some of these MPs of South Asian origin, such as Dhanda and Sharma, enjoy slim majorities that could be eroded by a 10 per cent swing towards the Conservatives on election day. Others like Keith Vaz, the sitting MP for Leicester East, is more confident of being re-elected.

Pakistani MPs Khalid Mahmood, Mohammed Sarwar and Shahid Malik have also fought and won seats on behalf of Labour. One exception to this collection of South Asian Labour MPs is Shailesh Vara, who fought and won the North Cambridgeshire seat on behalf of the Conservatives.

Yet if South Asians, whether MPs or voters, play a decisive role in defining the outcome of the election, so too will the personalities of party leaders. This is because for the most part the three parties have similar views on most major issues. All three want a fairer political system, including a clampdown on MPs' expenses. All three have been reaching out to minorities, whether they are women, gays or blacks; all three want Britain to stay in NATO and the European Union, although the Lib Dems would also like Britain to dump Sterling and join the Euro.

The Conservatives are viewed as being more friendly to big business, but Labour has argued that its tax reforms, along with a recent improvement in the country's economy, means it is much better equipped to promote future economic growth.

Gordon Brown, who takes personal credit for the country's modest economic recovery, is a former Chancellor of the Exchequer, who once famously and erroneously declared that the UK was no longer vulnerable to the 'boom and bust' policies of the past.

More than that, Brown has made a point of promoting himself as a people's politician. This view was enshrined in his election message at the start of the campaign when he declared, 'I come from an ordinary middle class family in an ordinary town and I know where I come from, and I will never forget the values — doing the right thing, doing your duty, taking responsibility, working hard — that is what my parents instilled in me.'

The substance of the message was to contrast Brown with the elitist Eton and Oxford credentials of his Conservative rival, David Cameron. This 43-year-old challenger, 16 years younger than his Labour rival, has fought back against Labour's bid to depict him as a posh snob interested only in the plums of office. His election message focuses on the common good: 'Let's win this election for the good of the country we love' and 'Let's take the case to the people of this country, about hope, optimism and change.'

As with Brown's spouse, Sarah, Cameron's image has been helped by the presence of his wife Samantha. The public also started to warm up to him after the loss last February of his handicapped son, Ivan. Cameron said he had seriously thought of giving up politics for good after his son's death.

Clegg's astonishing last-minute popularity, however, has upset the calculations of his two rivals. He does have some genuine policy differences, such as scrapping the Trident submarine and imposing a 1% tax on all properties worth more than £2 million. But his main appeal has been his freshness and the calm, stylish way he conducted himself on national television.

The outcome of the British general election is important for all South Asians because of London's continuing political and economic interest in the region. The US may be the world's only super power, but Britain has demonstrated how it too has a role to play in South Asia that goes beyond contributing troops to Afghanistan war.

Under Labour, British foreign policy towards India has been wholly favourable. On key issues such as India joining the United Nations Security Council as a permanent member, London has made it clear that it is all in favour.

One issue that is expected to come up after the election, regardless of which party wins, is British government policy on visas issued for South Asian visitors. These have become stricter and more expensive and the next British government can expect to be lobbied about this in Delhi, Islamabad, Dhaka and Colombo.

 

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