They would have to fight their way through well-entrenched militant positions in Sarwekai tehsil while trying to reach their strongholds in Kaniguram, Badar and Ladha. The army's supply lines could also face disruption as the troops push deeper into the mountainous Mehsud tribal territory.

The soldiers would have to look over their shoulders as some elements among the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe are allies of the Hakimullah Mehsud-led militants grouped under the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The government and military commanders have held meetings with Ahmadzai Wazir tribal elders and Maulvi Nazeer in a bid to prevail upon them to stay neutral during the army action against the TTP militants.

The Uzbek militants aligned to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and fighting for the TTP are known to be ferocious fighters. They still nurse a grudge against the Ahmadzai Wazir tribe for expelling them from Wana and Shakai and killing some of their men two years ago. The Uzbek militants, numbering 600 or more, are in a revengeful mood having lost their leader Tahir Yuldashev in a recent U.S. drone strike in South Waziristan and are expected to fight doggedly to defend an area that is one of the few places in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) where they could still find refuge. The Arabs and other militants affiliated to Al Qaeda and less in numbers than the Uzbeks would try to stay out of the battle for as long as they can but they may be dragged into the fighting in view of the prevailing circumstances in the region.

The most contested frontline in the battle for South Waziristan presently is the Kotkai-Srarogha axis. This was the case during previous military operations also. In fact, the Kotkai village was destroyed in the last military action in January 2008 when it was bombed repeatedly from air and shelled by artillery guns. The troops had advanced to Kotkai, village of Hakimullah Mehsud and his cousin Qari Hussain, known as the 'Ustad-i-Fidayeen' or mentor to the suicide bombers, but that was the end of their march into Taliban country as making further progress was proving costly in terms of human and material losses and before long a peace deal was struck with Baitullah Mehsud.

The troops have again captured Kotkai, whose fall has symbolic value being the village of the TTP head, and are now advancing on Srarogha, a major stronghold of the militants. If Srarogha falls, the militants would have to decide whether to defend other strongholds like Makeen, Ladha and Kaniguram or escape to neighbouring North Waziristan, Orakzai Agency or other tribal areas and try to survive and bide their time.

At the time of writing, the military is claiming to have killed over 200 militants. It has conceded some losses but these are far less than those in the ranks of Taliban. At places the militants were taken unawares or were overwhelmed and had to beat a hasty retreat.

The military would eventually capture most of the Taliban strongholds, though it may not happen in the six to eight weeks estimated by the military commanders. Snowfall in the approaching winter would also determine the course of the fighting. The troops are certainly better equipped and resourced to face the cold weather compared to the militants in case they are forced out of their built-up positions and pushed towards their mountain fastnesses. However, it must be borne in mind that the tribal fighters are tough and battle-hardened. Familiar with the terrain and determined to defend their hometowns and valleys, they would fight till the bitter end. The army troops sent into battle are said to total 30,000 and are aided by air support, public backing and media's goodwill.

As was the case before the operations in Swat, the military leadership received political support just a day before the attack in South Waziristan. Only the Jamaat-e-Islami and Imran Khan's Tehrik-e-Insaf are opposed to the policy and both are unrepresented in parliament having boycotted the last general elections.

Though the anti-U.S. sentiment is strong as ever, more and more people in the NWFP and tribal areas have turned against the militants for having destroyed the peace of their towns and villages. The militants have lost whatever little public sympathy they had because of their tactics of imposing their will on the hapless population in areas controlled by them, eliminating opponents, fighting the Pakistani state and its security and law-enforcement forces, carrying out suicide bombings and beheadings and kidnapping people for ransom.

The number of militants involved in fighting varies between 10,000 and 17,000, or even more, but inadequate intelligence in this Taliban-controlled territory means that precise numbers or even intelligent guesses about the militants' manpower aren't available. The militants would surely receive reinforcements from all over the country, but the armed forces have a larger capacity to send more troops, deploy better weapons and dominate the skies. Clearing the Mehsud tribal area of militants is a huge challenge, one that can be accomplished only at a high cost of human and material losses. However, holding the captured territory would be a bigger challenge in view of the likelihood of subsequent guerrilla attacks by the militants and the use of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) planted in the unpaved roads and, of course, the suicide bombers in their ranks.

Another challenge is to look after the needs of the people displaced by fighting in South Waziristan and their repatriation and rehabilitation once the fighting is over. About 200,000 people have been displaced but no camp has been set up for them due to the government's argument that the tribal people don't want to live in relief camps. People displaced in the past from South and North Waziristan, Kurram, Orakzai, Khyber, Bajaur, Mohmand, Darra Adamkhel and other tribal areas have been complaining, with some justification, that they weren't given the kind of support provided to the dislocated families from Swat and rest of Malakand region.

Retaliatory attacks including suicide bombings are already taking place in the Pakistani cities with alarming regularity and this would continue for sometime. More than 300 people have been killed in acts of terrorism in an unprecedented spree of militant violence over the past three weeks in different parts of the country, particularly in Peshawar where the death toll in sixth bombings in the past one month has been 176. The deadliest bomb explosion on October 28 in a crowded marketplace killed over 100 people. Spectacular raids on the General Headquarters of Pakistan Army in Rawalpindi and police installations in Lahore, Peshawar and Kohat forced the military to expedite plans to storm the militants' strongholds in South Waziristan.

The battle for South Waziristan is going to be longer and harder than any other military operation undertaken by Pakistan's armed forces since 2003-2004 against militants in the tribal areas or Swat. This is the reason that many politicians and analysts are describing it as the 'mother of all battles'. The description may not be correct but the outcome of the South Waziristan battle would determine the direction that militancy would take in Pakistan.

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