asianaffairs

New dimension to Indo-Afghan relations

Afghan president Hamid Karzai's recent visit to India marked fresh developments in the two countries' relationship, and in the wider world sphere.

By G Parthasarathy

CONSIDERED DIALOGUE: President Karzai's visit to Delhi signalled a new aspect to the Indo-Afghan relationship

President Hamid Karzai's visit to New Delhi on October 4 signalled a new turn in the geopolitics of India's western Afpak neighbourhood. The visit came at a time when Washington was manifesting increasing impatience and anger over Pakistan's intransigence in refusing to act against Taliban safe havens and sanctuaries in its Pashtun tribal areas, straddling the disputed Durand Line. As far as President Karzai was concerned, the proverbial last straw that broke the camel's back was the assassination of Mullah Rabbani, his high level negotiator for 'reconciliation' with the Taliban. Afghanistan's Intelligence Services soon announced that the assassin was affiliated to the Mullah Omar-led 'Quetta Shura', which is based across the Durand Line and the recipient of ISI indulgence and support. An infuriated Karzai called off the 'dialogue' with the Taliban and insinuated that it was acting at the behest of Pakistan.

New Delhi and Kabul had announced in May that they were finalizing the text of a strategic partnership agreement. The Rabbani assassination appears to have triggered a sense of urgency for concluding this agreement during the New Delhi Summit. Over the past ten years, India has

steadfastly avoided getting involved in security issues in Afghanistan, recognizing that any such Indian involvement could complicate American and ISAF military strategies, because of Pakistani sensitivities. India is today Afghanistan's biggest regional aid donor and the sixth largest overall. It has pledged $2 billion for aid projects covering school education, public health, agriculture, power generation and transmission, communications and for training and education for Afghan nationals in Indian institutions. In order to end Afghanistan's dependence exclusively on Pakistan for access to the sea, India has built a highway designed to connect Afghanistan to the Iranian Port of Chah Bahar. Pakistan presently denies transit facilities to India for exports to Afghanistan. India is also completing work on the construction of a new Parliament for Afghanistan in Kabul.

The October 4 Karzai-Manmohan Singh Agreement gives a new strategic dimension to the India-Afghanistan relationship. It states that the two countries will have a Strategic Dialogue to provide a framework for cooperation in the area of national security. This dialogue is to be held regularly between the National Security Advisers. The Agreement also states that 'India agrees to assist, as mutually determined, in the training, equipping and capacity building programmes for Afghan National Security Forces'. India will not, however, get involved in combat operations in Afghanistan. With American Forces scheduled to end combat operations by December 2014, the Karzai dispensation appears keen to ensure that the institutions of a close neighbour are also involved in arming, training and equipping its armed forces. The Obama Administration has welcomed this development. Washington was evidently kept in the loop about discussions on the strategic partnership agreement.

Apart from the security dimensions of the India-Afghanistan relationship, the visit also signalled Indian interest in investing in the minerals sector of Afghanistan's national economy. A Consortium of India Firms is bidding for the development of the Hajigak Iron Ore Mines in Afghanistan's Bamiyan Province. The project would involve the development of the mines, construction of a railroad for transhipping the iron ore and the construction of a steel plant. It will involve an estimated investment of $6 billion. The Chinese alone have thus far shown an interest in investing in the development of Afghanistan's natural resources, including a copper mine and an oil field. India has now shown that it believes that stability can be restored in the long-term for mineral development in Afghanistan, and that it intends to stay the course, even if others choose to leave earlier. The hope is that over the long-term, Pakistan too will realize the economic benefits of a stable Afghanistan, acting as a transit route for the region's gas and natural resources and that it will move away from its present policies of seeking to convert Afghanistan into a Talibanized client State.

In ensuring that it gets regional support for its efforts, India has reached out to Iran, Russia and Afghanistan's Central Asian neighbours. Dr Manmohan Singh met Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad recently in New York. Iran shares India's aversion to a virulently anti-Shia, Taliban-dominated regime in Afghanistan. New Delhi has also noted that Washington is reaching out to Uzbekistan's President Islam Karimov. India has for long worked closely with Tajikistan in developing an air base and hospital along the Tajik-Afghan border, recognizing that the Tajiks have no desire to see the Taliban return close to their borders. What has been most encouraging has been the Russian readiness to cooperate in providing transportation corridors for American supplies to their forces in Afghanistan. Reflecting Russian concerns about an American withdrawal from Afghanistan, Nikolai Bordyuzha, the former Chief of the Russian Border services and presently Secretary General of the Russian led Collective security Treaty Organization (CSTO), remarked: 'The prognosis [of an American withdrawal] is clear — Afghanistan will remain a base for organizing terrorist and militant activities'. His colleague Colonel General Vladimir Chirkin, Commander of Russia's Central Military District, warned that with the withdrawal of American forces, militant activity in Central Asia would increase and 'threats can now come creeping to our Southern borders'.

China has been noticeably silent on these developments. While concerned about radical Islamic influences on its volatile Xinjiang Province, China has avoided saying or doing anything likely to offend Pakistan's protégés in Afghanistan, like the Mullah Omar led Taliban network, or the Pashtun warlord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar. At the same time, China knows that it cannot afford to do anything in Afghanistan that the Americans will object to. While the Americans may end their combat operations in December 2014, there appears little doubt that a significant American military presence, including air power, will remain in Afghanistan well beyond that date. While the US may exercise restraint in mounting attacks on terrorist safe havens while its dependence on supply routes through Pakistan remains for the next two years, the same American restraint and forbearance may not continue indefinitely thereafter.

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