President Zardari, widower of assassinated, twice-prime minister of Pakistan, Benazir Bhutto, who replaced her as head of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), made no further effort to tell the confused Pakistanis about the nature of the 'good news' that he had promised them at his maiden news conference as head of the state. In fact, the president wasn't prompted to make this comment and his mention of the 'good news' came out of the blue.
There was a feeling then that he would elaborate it in his address to the joint session of Parliament in Islamabad on September 20. Nothing of the sort happened as his presidential speech didn't carry anything new. The only significance of the occasion was that after a long time the president of Pakistan, in keeping with constitutional requirements, managed to speak to members of the National Assembly and the Senate at their joint session. Former president Pervez Musharraf, during his eight years of authoritarian rule, had addressed the parliament once only in January 2004 and the reception he got from the combined opposition was so hostile that he decided not to step foot again in the spacious National Assembly building in Islamabad. The 'go Musharraf go' slogans were so vociferous and sustained that the uniformed president angrily referred to the lawmakers as uncivilised and said he would not address them until they became civilised.
President Zardari did make references to Kashmir and Pakistan's relations with India but there was still no 'good news' that he had promised. He expressed his wish to revive the composite dialogue with India on Kashmir and other issues and focus on enhancing trade between the two neighbouring countries to improve relations. He said Pakistan would seek settlement of all outstanding disputes including Jammu and Kashmir in a bid to remove the main hurdle in the way towards peace and normalisation of relations between India and Pakistan. Committing himself to support the just struggle of the Kashmiri people for their fundamental rights, he promised to launch a pioneering initiative as part of confidence building measures (CBMs) by pushing for across-Line of Control (LoC) trade between Indian Kashmir and Pakistani Kashmir. The president also proposed a more liberal visa regime to expand people-to-people contacts between not only Kashmiris but also Indians and Pakistanis and establish new facilities and services for Sikh and Hindu pilgrims visiting Pakistan.
Wishing to take all political parties along with him, President Zardari recommended to the PPP-led coalition government of Prime Minister Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani and the parliament to form a bipartisan caucus for the purpose of discussing and resolving outstanding disputes relating to Jammu and Kashmir and the Indus waters treaty. As the president explained, the formation of the caucus with representation from all political parties of Pakistan would unite the nation on key issues and draw strength by speaking with one voice.
Nowhere in his speech did Zardari give any indication about the 'good news' that he had promised on Kashmir. With his credibility already low among his people due to his corruption-tainted past and broken promises, many Pakistanis in any case didn't believe him when he made that promise. Some people began comparing Zardari with his predecessor Musharraf, who had loudly done some 'out-of-the-box' thinking on Jammu and Kashmir and suggested bold initiatives to resolve the dispute. By doing so, he had shown willingness to forget the UN Security Council resolutions that called for a plebiscite to allow the Kashmiri people to exercise their right of self-determination. Musharraf had been bitterly criticised in Pakistan for conceding too much on Kashmir without getting anything tangible in return from India.
Most political parties accused him of betraying the Kashmiri people. His foreign minister Khurshid Mahmood Kasuri raised false hopes among Pakistanis by continuously predicting that the Siachin and Sir Creek land disputes between India and Pakistan were about to be resolved and that a major breakthrough on Kashmir issue had become a possibility. It is another matter that the Siachin and Sir Creek disputes are still unresolved and no breakthrough on Kashmir was achieved. And despite Mr Kasuri's optimism, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh didn't undertake his long-delayed visit to Pakistan. Apparently, he didn't come due to the political instability that engulfed the country following General Musharraf's arbitrary and unpopular move in March 2007 to sack Chief Justice of Pakistan, Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. Obviously, the absence of a strong leader in Pakistan following loss of Musharraf's popularity would have contributed to Manmohan Singh's decision not to visit the neighbouring country as New Delhi would prefer doing business with someone fully in control in Islamabad.
To the chagrin of many Kashmiris and particularly the Pakistan-based United Jihad Council that serves as a platform for armed Kashmiri groups fighting for independence from India, Zardari made no mention of the UN resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir in his speech to the parliament. This was contrary to his own party's stand that the UN resolutions on Jammu and Kashmir must be implemented to allow the Kashmiris the right to determine their fate through a plebiscite. However, times have changed and it seemed Zardari didn't want to start his term at the presidency by annoying India after having spoken about the need to initiate steps to promote ties between Islamabad and New Delhi. It would take Pakistan's new rulers a while to come out of the awkward situation in which Musharraf had placed his country by making policy statements on Kashmir and other issues without proper consultation involving the foreign ministry, cabinet, military commanders, leaders from Pakistani Kashmir and other stakeholders.
Pakistan was clearly taken unawares by the street protests in Muslim majority part of Indian Kashmir that erupted on July 1 following the state government's controversial decision to allot 99 acres of land to an organisation that caters to Hindu pilgrims to Amarnath. The protests gathered steam in August and September.
The Pakistan government could not imagine that so many Kashmiris would pour into the streets of Srinagar and elsewhere in the valley and consistently shout slogans of 'Azadi' (freedom). The fact that Pakistan was in no way linked to these protests provided the movement a lot of credibility. As the demonstrations grew bigger and peaked on August 22, political parties in Pakistan started showing interest in the issue and came out strongly in support of the protestors. The United Jihad Council, which doesn't believe in peaceful struggle for resolving the Kashmir dispute, had to take a back seat as the spontaneous protests in Indian Kashmir were being held by Kashmiris who believe in peacefully highlighting their cause. The peaceful rallies have got better international coverage and certainly more sympathy in the West than the radical Kashmiris who used violence to achieve their objectives and discredited their struggle. Though the Kashmiris turned violent in December 1989 and armed fighters, many coming from Pakistan after receiving support and training, made their presence felt until now, the face of the struggle of Kashmiri people has changed with the recent upsurge of peaceful protests.
It is possible that Pakistan would be tempted to review its Kashmir policy in the wake of the realisation that a section of Kashmiri Muslims remain deeply unhappy with India and are still seeking the right to determine their future. Though it is now common knowledge that many Kashmiris would like to become independent instead of remaining with India or joining Pakistan, sections of the Pakistani establishment and particularly the military would still want to believe that the Kashmir valley could eventually become part of Pakistan.
The Kashmir issue was fast being consigned to the backburner owing to Pakistan's own burning problems but the huge protest rallies in Indian Kashmir has altered the situation and there is now renewed interest in the future of the Kashmiris. The Pakistan government too seems to be taking notice of the new possibilities that the protesting Kashmiris have created in recent months.
However, in New York to attend the UN General Assembly, Zardari said to the Pakistani media on September 24 that if India and Pakistan were to stand together, the Kashmir issue can be resolved. Pakistan, of course, will continue to provide moral support to the Kashmiris. But the president refused to confirm whether Pakistan's position on Kashmir was still anchored in UN resolutions. 'If need be we can always go back to the United Nations,' Zardari said. It was reasonably obvious he was de-emphasising the role of UN and felt the Kashmir issue should rather be dealt with bilaterally, a position New Delhi has long advocated. Kashmir remains the 'core issue' between the two countries, he said to the home media, and every Pakistani government has viewed it so. The (ongoing) uprising in Kashmir is indigenous. However, the problem can be resolved through 'people-to-people dialogue'.
Politics, it is said, is the art of the possible. President Zardari has conveyed his impressions on what he thinks is possible given the present situation. But Pakistanis still wait with bated breadth for the 'good news'.
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