asianaffairs

Vying for power in the South China Sea

Growing Indian involvement in the South China Sea is a manoeuvre to outflank China, whose interest in the Indian Ocean is steadily increasing.

By Rodger Baker

Although competition between China and India is nothing particularly new, we are currently seeing a flare-up in relations between the two countries. India has been expanding its relationship with Vietnam, focusing on oil and gas exploration and production as well as military cooperation. This has received a strong verbal response from the Chinese, as well as some physical activity.

India and Vietnam have been cooperating in offshore oil and gas exploration for several years. However, they are moving into a new phase with more exploitation of the resources. It appears that later this year, a new memorandum of understanding between the two countries is going to be signed. China has responded to this by accusing India of violating Chinese territorial waters and of interfering in Chinese territorial issues. There has been a report of an incident where Chinese maritime police have interfered with the operations of an Indian vessel in Vietnamese waters, and we see statements coming out of Beijing warning India to back off.

India has for a long time pursued what it calls a 'Look East' policy, but it has not pursued it very strongly. We see India now moving back again into ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) into the South China Sea, trying to expand its activity, to secure some of its influence, and ultimately taking a role in securing the major supply routes to the area while also attempting to counter the power of China. Chinese activity in Pakistan and Myanmar, the expansion of Chinese port agreements throughout the Indian Ocean Basin, even Chinese naval activity in regard to the anti-piracy operations off Africa, have left the Indians feeling a little bit vulnerable.

Seeing the Chinese become stronger, at least theoretically, in their operations in the Indian Ocean, India is looking in some sense to outflank China now. In response to China's activities in the Indian Ocean, the Indians are going to become more active in the South China Sea and maybe even further north. There is talk of creating a trilateral grouping to discuss security, economics and politics in the region between India, the United States and Japan, for example. This very obviously looks to the Chinese like an attempt to constrain Chinese operations and capabilities within their own sphere of influence.

The South China Sea has long been the centre of competition for sea lane control as well as, for the most part, theoretically for resources; though there is fishing, there has also been some offshore oil and gas activity. In recent years we have seen an expansion of attention into not only exploring but truly exploiting undersea resources, and not just oil and gas but also now mineral exploration. This is changing, in some sense, the way in which the countries interact because formerly, when lots of countries claimed either all or parts of the territory, there was little to force them into confrontation. Now, as countries begin to access resources and to explore the resources in the sea beds, they are doing so in ways that in some sense assert their territorial claim to that area. This leaves the other countries that don't interfere with such behaviour seeming to accept those territorial claims.

The concreteness of this has changed, in some sense, the way in which interactions regarding the South China Sea play out. As countries expand their operations, as they put in installations, semi-permanent or permanent, to be able to access these resources, they find themselves needing to defend those resources. Other countries may be interfering in the operations and so we see these issues where China will send a boat to interfere with the activity of another country's ships. The response, then, from Vietnam — or from India, in this case — may be to become more robust in their own military patrols in the area. And this builds up a case where you have more military vessels in the area at the same time and the chances for accidental confrontation start to rise.

In the end, while India is becoming more involved, there are some serious limitations. The Indians certainly have very large land borders that they are much more concerned about. The country still struggles with internal insurgencies and militancy. And India's ability to forcefully push itself into the South China Sea is very limited. The Vietnamese, who are working with them, know this. Vietnam is playing a lot of different options, not just working with India but also working with China, with the United States, with Japan and several other countries.

As we watch this competition play out, the countries in Southeast Asia are placed in an interesting position. They have the ability to exploit this competition to draw, perhaps, greater attention from each of the different players. At the same time, they run the risk of being exploited by these players and finding themselves caught up in this big power confrontation.

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