Mercifully, at the time of writing on August 25, it has at last cracked down on the Kashmiri 'separatists' who, until the other day, were having the run of the valley and shouting pro-independence, pro-Pakistan and anti-India slogans. To be fair, the Central government plans to be equally firm with the Hindu agitators in Jammu. But doubts persist about the efficacy of the belated change of policy.

For one thing, excessive use of force, followed by virtual freedom to the law-breakers to do what they liked, has greatly dented the Central government's authority and prestige. For another, undeterred by blanket curfew, detention and arrests of its leaders and threats of 'strong action', the separatists of the valley are planning a 'massive march' in Srinagar. To compound the explosive situation, the agitators in Jammu have also upped the ante and given up the welcome flexibility they had suddenly shown only a day earlier. Most ominously, they are repeating the obstruction of all traffic between the two regions. It was this 'blockade' lasting for six days that had triggered a huge march of angry fruit merchants and separatists in an attempt to cross the Line of Control (LoC) and sell their fruit in Pakistan-held Kashmir. To prevent this security forces opened fire and 11 of the marchers were killed. Aware of the dangers of a renewed blockade, the authorities have called out the Army to keep the traffic on the Jammu-Srinagar highway going.

Tragically, all the political parties, within Kashmir and at the national level, share the responsibility for bringing J&K to its present sorry pass. Apart from the deadweight of the past mishandling by both the Central and state governments, almost every political outfit has behaved appallingly. For instance, the May 26 order for the 'allotment' of a mere forty hectares of forest wasteland to a legally established Hindu shrine board involved no change of the land's ownership. Moreover, the land was to be used only for temporary shelter for pilgrims during the two-month pilgrimage period every year. Yet, the separatists and secessionists were able to create virtual hysteria in the valley by raising the scare that this was, in fact, 'the thin-end of the wedge that would change Kashmir's demography'. The Muslim ministers, belonging to the People's Democratic Party (PDP), and coalition partners of the Congress, who had signed the order promptly disowned it, brought down the government, and joined the agitation for the order's withdrawal. The other mainstream party that has frequently ruled the state, the National Conference, was already a part of the agitation. The order was withdrawn. But fresh trouble immediately ensued.

On the one hand, a virulent agitation in the rival region of Jammu erupted, demanding that the rescinding of the original order should itself be rescinded and the allotment of the land to the Amarnath shrine board be restored. The Sangharsh Samiti (Struggle Association) would settle for nothing less. An inevitable part of all Indian agitations is uprooting of railway lines (there is none between Jammu and the valley) and obstruction to all road traffic. To do so on the Jammu-Srinagar highway, the only link between the Kashmir valley and the rest of India, was bound to invite very angry reaction in the valley at a time when freshly harvested fruit of Kashmir must be sent to Delhi and beyond or it would perish. The separatists exploited the 'blockade' to the hilt. A major escalation followed. Consequently, the dividing line between the separatists and the mainstream parties has been blurred in Kashmir; in Jammu even local Congress leaders have joined the agitation spearheaded by Hindutva forces aligned with principal opposition party in Parliament, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

To nobody's surprise all attempts to build a national consensus on salvaging the grim situation in J & K have so far foundered on the rock of rank partisanship that has played havoc with the Indian system for nearly three decades. Even so, non-partisan and impartial observers have not yet become an extinct breed. Among them there is striking unanimity on three major points.

First that the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance government has been culpable for neglecting the gathering storm even after it had burst in all its fury. Smugness over the perceived end of insurgency in Kashmir together with a huge increase in tourism in the state was only partly responsible for this. Another problem was that Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was too preoccupied with the India-America Nuclear Cooperation deal, to the exclusion of almost everything else. Then, after the Left Front, withdrew its support to his government he was immersed in the battle to save it. He won the necessary vote of confidence on July 22. Yet, the first all-party conference he held took place only on August 7.

Secondly, as a corollary of the first, Kashmir affairs have been left to the care of Union Home Minister, Shivraj Patil, who has been totally out of his depth. Like an ostrich with its heads buried in sand, he has consistently ignored or underplayed Jammu and Kashmir's mounting woes. Why Sonia Gandhi and Manmohan Singh do not shift him elsewhere and bring in a hands-on minister to Home Ministry remains a mystery.

Thirdly, and sadly, the government's ineptitude is matched by the BJP's crass irresponsibility. It sees in the J & K situation an opportunity to embarrass the Congress, and even more so, to carry to all nooks and corners of the country the message that the Congress 'appeases' the Muslims and mistreats the Hindus, L.K.Advani, the party's prime ministerial candidate, says that the problem in J & K is 'nationalism versus separatism'. But he shies away from the question: what kind of nationalism is it that cuts at the very roots India's national interest in a state disputed by Pakistan?

Two other factors need a brief mention. One, it is a measure of the mood of the prosperous middle class that several opinion makers, including newspaper editors and columnists, have argued that if the Kashmiris don't want to stay in India, 'let them go'. This has invited a strong backlash. The government too has declared that Indian unity and territorial integrity are 'non-negotiable'.

Secondly, Pakistan has condemned the 'denial of human rights' in Kashmir and even talked of taking the matter to the United Nations. At the same time, Pakistani terrorist outfits have increased their activity in the valley while there have been 27 violations of the ceasefire that had lasted four-and-a-half years. Even so, Pakistan is in deep trouble itself that limits its capacity to fish in troubled waters. In the words of a senior Congress leader who did not want to be identified by name, 'What Pakistan could not do in 60 years we seem to have done in 60 days'.

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