In his political life Olmert has been a hawkish mayor of Jerusalem who turned into a liberal and darling of the Left by abandoning his colleagues in the right-wing Likud Party and embracing Kadima. The founder of Kadima is former prime minister Ariel Sharon, being kept alive for over two-and-a-half years now on a life support machine, who was also once a member of Likud.
Sharon abandoned Likud in order to implement his plans for disengaging from Gaza and those who followed his example, including both Olmert and members of other political parties, saw the centrist Kadima as the ideal vehicle for implementing their agenda of military withdrawal.
Olmert too was in favour of a Gaza pull back as well as a two-state solution that sees Israel and Palestine living side-by-side as independent states. For some Israelis he has gone too far because of his willingness to yield most of the West Bank to the Palestinians. But that is not seen as a negative in Israel's Left-dominated media which also views Olmert as a foil to the leading light of the Right, former prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, who heads the Likud.
Latest opinion polls suggest that Netanyahu and Likud would be the most likely winners in a snap election. Netanyahu's self-image is of a man who takes on the so-called elitists, including what he often describes as the exclusive club of liberal-leftists.
Olmert's problems started with the failed Lebanon war of 2006. It was considered an unmitigated disaster, not least because Israel went into a conflict with two declared objectives that it failed to meet. One was to disarm the Lebanese militant group, Hizbollah, and the other was to recover two kidnapped Israeli soldiers, Ehud Regev and Ehud Goldweiser.
In Olmert's own words, Israel was going to war for the return of the two soldiers who were kidnapped in a daring raid by Hizbollah across Israel's northern border. Forty days later the war ended with more than 150 Israeli casualties, most of them civilians, and no solution for meeting the onslaught of Hizbollah rockets that rained down for the first time on Israeli urban centres. As for the two missing soldiers, they came home in body bags.
The subsequent Eliyahu Winograd Commission of Inquiry criticised both Olmert and his then defence minister, Amir Peretz, blaming both men for their poor leadership skills, specifically highlighting what it described as Olmert's 'misguided and rash' judgement.
Winograd was the first step on a slippery slope of accusations against Olmert, including allegations of corruption and abuse of power. No charges have stuck, although, as they say on the Israeli street, 'rumours kill.' Weekly leaks to the media have subsequently detailed the launch of endless police inquiries into fresh allegations of financial misconduct on Olmert's part.
The latest scandal and the straw that broke the camel's back, at least as far as Olmert was concerned, has to do with claims that the prime minister accepted money from a 75-year-old New Jersey, U.S.-origin businessman, Morris Talansky, in return for recommendations to help his business dealings. The still unproven allegations imply unethical rather than criminal behaviour on Olmert's part and the amount of money involved – U.S. $150,000 – is relatively small.
But, unfortunately for him, Olmert has now fallen out of favour with opinion makers who think he is stuck in his ways and not moving fast enough on key issues like peace with the Palestinians. He has been supplanted by his Foreign Minister, Tzipi Livni, who has put herself forward as the new head of Kadima and possible next prime minister.
A former employee of Israel's Mossad secret service – her supporters claim she participated in secret operation chasing terrorists on the streets of Europe – Livni has turned out to be a low level operative who was used by the intelligence agency to hire properties for their work. Nevertheless, the Mossad connection is seen as vital for a wannabe prime minister who knows that her fellow Israelis love politicians with army or security service backgrounds.
Livni's rivals are the current Minister of Transport and former defence chief General Shaul Mofaz, former Shin Bet internal security service head Avi Distel, who is also the Minister of Police, and Moroccan-born Interior Minister Shimon Shitreet. Out of all these candidates Livni is rated as the hot favourite in soundings taken by the country's opinion polls.
What would happen if Livni does take over? As far as the Middle East peace process is concerned, the Palestinians are not pessimistic. They believe she will be more accessible than Olmert, not least because she has served as foreign minister and is more sensitive to those western politicians who believe Jerusalem needs to be more accommodating to the Palestinian cause.
The other item high on any Israeli leader's agenda is the growing military power of Iran and its possible emergence as a nuclear weapons state. A senior Israeli security official recently quoted in the Jerusalem media has identified Iran as the biggest current threat to Israel.
On the Israeli street the feeling is that defence planners are ready to take on Iran by attacking its nuclear facilities, but they are being held back by U.S. President George Bush who does not want a war on his doorstep as he prepares to leave office. There is some support for this assessment stemming from Olmert's last trip to Washington when he asked for and was refused permission to purchase Boeing transport aircraft that can be fuelled in mid-air and would be indispensable for any future air attack on Iranian facilities.
Where internal Israeli politics are concerned a Livni-led Kadima will need the support of one or more other political parties to sustain a governing coalition. The Olmert government has the support of the Labour Party, led by Ehud Barak, who also has his eyes on the prime minister's chair. Unwilling to serve under Livni and conscious of his own slipping personal popularity, he has recently mocked both Kadima and Livni personally.
Meanwhile, as Kadima and Labour engage in a shadow boxing match, the real beneficiary of these political rivalries is the opposition Likud headed by Netanyahu. New opinion polls show that Netanyahu could beat both Livni and Barak in any future election. The implications of a Netanyahu victory means no further progress with the Palestinians, new tensions with the rest of the Arab world and even a possible political clash with the U.S.
None of this bodes well for the Middle East as Kadima holds its primaries, followed by talks for constructing a new coalition. Whether the coalition talks succeed or not, Livni will be under pressure to hold new elections because in the public's perception she lacks a mandate. Olmert leaves behind a troubled legacy.
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