A realignment of political forces in Pakistan is now taking place with the PML-N and PPP emerging as the lead players. The PPP, as the major partner in the ruling coalition, has done comparatively better in luring parties such as MQM, ANP and JUI-F to its side as it has the power and resources to dole out favours to the smaller political groups. Apart from presiding over the federal government at the Centre, PPP is the dominant party in the coalition governments in its strongholds of Sindh and Balochistan. It is also junior partner in coalitions ruling Punjab and the militancy-hit North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).

The PML-N is moving closer to the All Pakistan Democratic Movement (APDM), an unlikely alliance of nationalist and Islamic parties that boycotted the February 18 general elections and is now out of the political mainstream. Qazi Hussain Ahmad, head of the Jamaat-i-Islami, one of the biggest Islamic parties in the country, has already invited Nawaz Sharif to rejoin the APDM and become part of its campaign for reinstatement of dozens of judges of the superior courts sacked last November by the then president General Musharraf and for independence of judiciary and rule of law. The PML-N had quit the APDM after deciding to contest the February 18 elections, in which it emerged as the second largest party after the PPP.

The PML-N is now sitting in the opposition, though its provincial government led by Nawaz Sharif's younger brother Shahbaz Sharif in Pakistan's largest province Punjab, is still intact. In fact, the PPP is part of the coalition government in Punjab and appears willing to continue the arrangement for the time being. But it is obvious that the two parties would not be able to stay together in Punjab after the break-up of their six-month old alliance. There is already a talk of horse-trading as the two parties vie with each other to win over lawmakers in a bid to gain majority in the Punjab Assembly. The PPP could go all out to install its government in Punjab but it can only happen by buying loyalties of legislators. Such a move would put the PPP and PML-N on the path of confrontation and cause political instability in Pakistan.

Zardari, widower of assassinated PPP leader and twice-prime minister Benazir Bhutto, is certain to be elected as the new president of Pakistan. There are 32 candidates for the president's office but the important ones are PML-N's nominee Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, the former chief justice of Pakistan who refused to take oath under the Legal Framework Order (LFO) promulgated by Musharraf when he staged a coup d'etat and removed the democratic government of the then prime minister Nawaz Sharif in 1999, and former information minister Mushahid Hussain Sayed, fielded by the pro-Musharraf PML-Q. Siddiqui, an upright judge from Karachi, sacrificed his exalted office for the sake of principles and refused to become a pliant chief justice of the Supreme Court as desired by military dictator Musharraf. However, he has no chance of winning the presidential election against his formidable rival Zardari. The third main candidate, Mushahid Hussain Sayed, could drop out before the poll because his party, PML-Q, has suffered desertions since its defeat in the February election. The PML-Q was artificially created by Musharraf to give a civilian façade to his military rule but it lost its appeal when the party's benefactor was first forced to give up his position as army chief and then had to quit the office of president.

Musharraf was left with no option but to resign after the four-party ruling coalition comprising the PPP, PML-N, ANP and JUI-F resolved to impeach him in parliament. The 30-point chargesheet prepared against him charged him for a number of crimes including twice abrogating the constitution, misusing his presidential powers, damaging the economy and ordering military operations in Balochistan and killing veteran Baloch leader Nawab Akbar Bugti.

The powerful military was also unwilling to bail Musharraf out after having realised that the former army chief had become extremely unpopular in the country. In the end, the army generals ensured that Musharraf would not be impeached and humiliated by putting him on trial. Army Chief General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Musharraf's chosen successor, had earlier sealed his predecessor's fate by ordering his troops to remain neutral in the February 18 election. This meant that the polls could not be rigged and the pro-Musharraf PML-Q and its allied parties predictably lost at the hustings to the anti-Musharraf political forces.

The United States, Britain and Saudi Arabia also quietly played their role in winning indemnity for Musharraf, who had been a stalwart ally of America and the West in its 'war on terror.' American and British diplomats and Saudi secret service chiefs paid not-so-discreet visits to Pakistan and kept up the pressure on the leaders of the ruling coalition, particularly Zardari, to give safe passage to Musharraf. As Zardari disclosed subsequently, elements in Pakistan and abroad had played important roles in getting Musharraf to resign. If he had his way, the retired general would have ruled forever and even not hesitated from using his ill-gotten constitutional powers, such as the infamous article 58-2(B), to dissolve assemblies and dismiss the elected government of Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani. Zardari didn't identify the elements who virtually guaranteed Musharraf's exit but Pakistan Army and the U.S. were definitely among them. He also argued that he was unable to restore all the deposed judges in one go as demanded by Nawaz Sharif because certain assurances were given to the guarantors on this count. If true, this showed the level of foreign interference in Pakistan's affairs and the vulnerability of the country's rulers to outside pressure in their decision-making.

Despite the wish of majority of Pakistanis, it is unlikely that Musharraf would be tried in any Pakistani court. He is still living in the Army House, the abode of Chief of Army Staff, and has been provided extra security by the troops. There is speculation that he may go abroad, possibly the U.S., to meet his brother, son and daughter living there, after some time. But Musharraf has made it known that he wants to settle in his newly-built, five acre farmhouse on the outskirts of Islamabad. The government would want him to go out of the country because providing Musharraf security would be a nightmare considering the fact that Al Qaeda and other militant organisations have tried to kill him while he was in power and would not hesitate to make an attempt on his life again. Even otherwise, his presence in Pakistan would be a destabilising factor for the country's new rulers due to the fact that he still wields influence in the armed forces, bureaucracy and other powerful sections of the society after remaining in power for almost nine years.

Musharraf's resignation was supposed to bring political stability to Pakistan and strengthen democracy. It was also expected that terrorist attacks would subside and Taliban militants and Baloch separatists, who have had a pathological hatred for the retired general, would halt their attacks and give the democratic government a chance to peacefully and politically resolve the conflicts raging in the NWFP, Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan. But that hasn't happened and violence has only increased. Military operations are continuing in Bajaur and South Waziristan tribal regions in FATA, in Swat in NWFP and in parts of Balochistan and militants are retaliating by exploding bombs and sponsoring suicide bombings. There is also shortage of electricity, economic difficulties, unemployment and lawlessness. Pakistan has almost become ungovernable and the government appears unequal to the task.

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