September 2009
The return of a hero
Scott Stewart and
Fred Burton
 
A nuclear link?
Rupert Fisher
 
Flawed occupation
Andrew Small
 
Between bullets and ballots
Subhash Chopra
 
Trust comes first
David Watts
 
Will the top split up?
Rahimullah Yusufzai
 
Devilishly complex'
Inder Malhotra
 
Raising its head again
Tom Deegan and Sat-Bhambra
 
Is democracy the answer?
David Watts
 
Jeffrey Lewis from the New America Foundation on North Korean nuclear imbroglio
Shyam Bhatia
 
 
 
 
 
   
 

September 2009

India-Pakistan relations

'Devilishly complex'

Finding fault with each other or making tentative moves at reaching peace, there's never a dull moment between the two South Asian neighbours.

By Inder Malhotra

CANDID TALK: At the chief ministers' conference in New Delhi August 17, Prime Minister Singh said there were 'credible reports' of terrorist groups in Pakistan planning to carry out fresh attacks on India

Just over a month after Sharm-el-Sheikh where India's Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh signed a joint statement with his Pakistani counterpart, Yousaf Raza Gilani, that evoked strong criticism back home, and a month before foreign ministers of the two countries are due to meet on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, the good doctor made a speech to a meeting of state chief ministers on August 17 that was something of a reversal of what was said in the joint statement.

For while in the joint statement, concluded at the Egyptian sea resort, emphasis was on dialogue — there was indeed an agreement to 'de-link' Pakistani action on terrorism and dialogue — the main theme of  Singh's speech to the chief ministers was that they should be prepared for the possibility of Pakistan-based militant groups carrying out fresh terrorist attacks on this country. Cross-border terrorism, he said, 'remains a most pervasive threat'. He stressed that there were 'credible reports' of ongoing plans of terrorist groups in Pakistan whose area of operation in this country today 'extended far beyond the confines of Jammu and Kashmir and covered all parts of India'.

 
 

Discussing the situation in Kashmir, Dr. Singh spoke of 'disturbing trends' in infiltrations from across the Line of Control (LoC). These had come down materially, but now there was a 'surge' in them. Moreover, these infiltrators were 'more battle-hardened, better equipped and in possession of sophisticated communication equipment'.

In his speech during the parliamentary debate on the Sharm-el-Sheikh joint statement Dr Singh, invoking president Ronald Reagan of the United States, had declared that his motto was to 'trust but verify'. A widespread interpretation of his speech was that he had trusted Pakistan but his verification showed that the neighbouring country wasn't trustworthy.

No wonder then that initially at least it gave Pakistan a mild jolt. For, the first Pakistani reaction to it was that the Indian Prime Minister's remarks were 'uncalled for'. The author of this statement, however, was the junior Minister of Information, Sumsum Ali Bokhari, who spoke to the media in     the port city of Karachi, not in Islamabad. 'I wish he (Dr. Manmohan Singh) had not made this statement because Pakistan and India are moving towards better relations … As Pakistanis we would not want any problems to occur anywhere. We are ourselves victims of terrorism'.

Within a few hours it became clear that this nonentity had spoken out of turn. For a considered statement by the Pakistan Foreign Office, first handed to the Indian deputy high commissioner and then repeated in public, was conciliatory in tone and clever in content. Its substance was that the Indian Prime Minister's statement had to be taken seriously, and Pakistani would do everything to treat it so. However, said the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Shah Mahmood Qureshi, since India has 'credible information', let it be conveyed to Pakistan so that it could take the necessary action. He rubbed in that, in the joint statement, the two countries were committed to exchanging 'credible intelligence'. This has led a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan to remark that the 'ill-considered and badly drafted' joint statement would 'haunt the Prime Minister for a long time to come'.

However, exchange of credible intelligence is easier said than done. As the Americans have ruefully told Indian officials, the U.S. had given 'real time intelligence' to Pakistan that was immediately passed on to Afghan Taliban. Former president and retired general, Pervez Musharraf, publicly admitted in London the other day that the Pakistani ISI had to remain in touch with the Taliban across the Durand Line because it does not want India to dominate the Afghan scene after the Americans have withdrawn.

In this context, there seems consensus on both sides of the sub-continental divide that Pakistan has 'lobbed the cross-border terrorism issue back into India's court'. Neither this kind of one-upmanship nor fluctuation from optimism to pessimism is infrequent in India-Pakistan relations. Which only underscores what K. Natwar Singh — later foreign minister — had said as high commissioner to Pakistan way back in 1980s. Relations between these two neighbours, he had said, were 'devilishly complex'. Since then both the complexity and devilishness have multiplied manifold. Excellent personal relations among the people of the two countries coexist with unending tensions between the two states. India and Pakistan have to muddle along as best they can.

Meanwhile, most Indian observers are saying that his tough statement on terrorism indicates that Singh wants to put a lid on the storm of criticism that had hit him on arrival from Sharm-el-Sheikh. Not just the principal opposition party, the BJP, but also the Left Front and even his allies like the Samajwadi Party and the Rashtriya Janata Dal had accused Singh of a 'sell-out'. Most of them also alleged that he had done so 'under American pressure'.

The two major objections to the document signed in Egypt were about the 'de-linking' of terrorism and dialogue, and the inclusion in the joint statement, for the first time ever, of an elliptical reference to Pakistan's complaint of Indian interference in 'Balochistan and some other areas'. Emphatically and repeatedly, Dr. Manmohan Singh declared that there could be 'no dialogue, composite or otherwise' until Pakistan punished the perpetrators and masterminds of the horrific attack on Mumbai and there were 'credible' assurances that Pakistani territory would not be used for terrorist attacks on India. On Balochistan, his take was that India's hands were clean and its record was an open book and therefore it was prepared to discuss this issue. Unfortunately, no answer was forthcoming to the simple question as to why the prime minister's sentiments were not reflected in the joint statement.

What must have troubled Dr. Singh the most was that his own party, the Congress, withheld its support to him for several days. All its spokesmen would say was that the prime minister had made a statement and there was nothing to add to it. One day before the parliamentary debate the Congress Core Group met. According to reports, the PM had to face some flak. But on the floor of the two houses Congress MPs supported him. The next day Congress president Sonia Gandhi spoke to the party and gave 'full support' to the prime minister's presentation to parliament but never said a word about the 'joint statement'.

In fairness, Dr. Singh's vision of a conflict-free and peaceful subcontinent is commendable. However, he has learnt the hard way that no foreign policy, no matter how sound, can be sustained without the support of domestic opinion. Not for nothing did Nehru emphasise time and again that foreign policy was 'essentially an extension of domestic policy'.

top