This was the first major terrorist strike by the TTP for some time. The halt in suicide bombings, particularly in urban centres, had calmed down the nerves of the people and enabled the government to claim that its tough security measures and capture of a number of militants had degraded the TTP's ability to launch further terrorist attacks. However, another and more important reason for the lull in bombings, including suicide attacks, was due to the TTP's refusal to concede Baitullah's death in the U.S. drone strike on August 5. Now that it has admitted that Baitullah was indeed killed in that attack along with his wife, the TTP is ready to strike back; and the Torkham suicide bombing could be the first in what might turn out to be a series of revengeful attacks to avenge Baitullah's assassination. In fact, at the time of writing on August 30 news is coming in of another suicide bomber killing at least 14 police recruits in the Swat valley. This attack, the deadliest since the army regained control of the valley from the Taliban, bears the hallmark of TTP out to prove a point.   

The TTP was earlier able to resolve the issue of succession, for the time being at least, after belatedly conceding Baitullah's death and distributing the two most important positions in the organisation among the main contenders, Hakimullah and Maulana Waliur Rahman Mehsud. Under the power-sharing formula, the younger man Hakimullah was chosen the TTP central ameer, or head, and Waliur Rahman was made the leader of the militants in their stronghold of South Waziristan.

Hakimullah, who studied in a madrassa for some years but didn't graduate as a mullah, is credited with scores of spectacular attacks in Peshawar on truck terminals for Nato supplies to Afghanistan. His men have burnt or damaged hundreds of trucks supplying fuel, food and possibly weapons to Nato troops in Afghanistan, looted goods and killed drivers and guards in Peshawar and on the Khyber Pass highway leading to Torkham and onwards to Kabul. He also inflicted losses on Pakistani armed forces and captured a large number of soldiers and government officials to use them subsequently to swap prisoners and pocket ransom money.

Stepping into Baitullah's shoes won't be easy. Baitullah had almost become a mythical personality among his followers due to the somewhat exaggerated importance that the U.S. and its allies gave to him and his organisation. The U.S. announced $5 million head-money on him after the Pakistan government promised to pay Rs 50 million to anyone providing information that could lead to his death or capture. The Time named him among the 100 most influential figures in the world. Thrice he had fought the Pakistan Army to a standstill and brought together about 20 militants' groups in Pakistan's North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which includes the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, on one platform. He was also the link between Pakistani and Afghan Taliban and had strong ties to Al Qaeda and several jihadi groups operating in the region.

The young and emotional Hakimullah is at times reckless. He certainly needs a mature person like Maulana Waliur Rahman to keep a check on him. Even otherwise, he would be heavily dependent on Waliur Rahman for both manpower and resources to run the TTP. Waliur Rahman, the 35 year old cleric known as a close aide of Baitullah, holds the TTP purse and was privy to Baitullah's secrets. In fact, he has emerged as a pivotal figure in the TTP. He would continue to control the organisation's affairs as he did in the last years of the ailing Baitullah's life. Moreover, he would wield considerable influence as the TTP ameer for South Waziristan, the birthplace and headquarters of the militant group.

For 20 days, the Pakistani Taliban commanders tried to hide and deny Baitullah's death. They conceded his death when it became impossible to keep denying it any further. The evidence was piling up and the Taliban were unable to provide any proof of Baitullah's life. Despite TTP denials, it appears that Baitullah was killed along with his wife on the night of August 5 when the U.S. drones fired two missiles at his father-in-law Maulana Ikramuddin's house in Zangara village near Ladha town in South Waziristan. The story that Hakimullah fed to the media about Baitullah getting critically injured in the drone attack and succumbing to his injuries later may not be true. Until now he and other TTP commanders were claiming that Baitullah was ill rather than injured. As an after-thought, Hakimullah and his men presented to the media a new story and sequence of events. It would, however, be hard to believe this story following the less-than-credible denials and explanations that the TTP commanders made during the last few weeks.

There was no way that the new TTP leader would come from any place outside South Waziristan. It had to be a South Waziristani and also someone from the Mehsud tribe. Baitullah's fellow Mehsuds in the TTP would not have agreed to pass on the leadership to anyone else. Neither Maulana Faqir Muhammad, the TTP deputy leader plus the Taliban commander for Bajaur Agency, nor Maulana Fazlullah from Swat or for that matter Tariq Afridi from Darra Adamkhel and Abdul Wali alias Omar Khalid from Mohmand Agency had any real chance to head the organisation after Baitullah's death. The swiftness with which Maulana Faqir Muhammad withdrew his claim to Baitullah's position as the TTP acting head revealed his own weak position and underscored the inevitability of having someone from South Waziristan to replace Baitullah.

In the absence of a strong leader like Baitullah, the TTP would be confronted with new challenges. There are already reports of differences in its ranks. The TTP could suffer a break-up if it continues to incur losses at the hands of Pakistan's armed forces and the U.S. drones. The show of solidarity between Hakimullah and Waliur Rahman and their oft-repeated denials of any differences were clearly designed to keep the morale of the Taliban fighters high at a time of grief for the TTP rank and file on Baitullah's death. It was also aimed at assuring the Taliban troops that their two most important commanders are united and not fighting each other as claimed by Pakistan government functionaries.

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