asianaffairs

Domestic turmoil dampens diplomacy

In Manmohan Singh's recent speech marking the 64th anniversary of Indian independence, his focus on corruption at home placed other key issues on the back burner, writes Inder Malhotra.

By Inder Malhotra

CHAMPION OF THE PEOPLE?: Support for Anna Hazare is growing steadily all over India

On August 15, the 64th anniversary of Indian independence, keen observers of the Indian scene were somewhat dismayed. In his traditional address to the nation from the ramparts of the Red Fort, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh did not say a word about foreign policy. He did make a terse reference to the upheaval in West Asia (Middle East) 'that can cause us problems', but refrained from commenting on either Syria or Libya. He also steered clear of major developments in India's own backyard, including the ever-deepening crisis in Nepal, a neighbour sandwiched between India and China. Even at the time of writing, Nepal, in which Indian stakes are very high, does not have a government. Nor did he mention the fast improving relations with Bangladesh, which Dr Singh is due to visit on September 6, his briefcase stuffed with a slew of far-reaching agreements to be signed during his stay in Dhaka.

The reason for this unusual reticence was not difficult to uncover. A domestic crisis of huge magnitude was very much on the Prime Minister's mind. A day after the I-Day celebrations, Anna Hazare, a respected Gandhian leader, was to go on an indefinite fast in a crusade against corruption that is rampant in India and has besieged the Congress-led government for the best part of two years. So Dr Singh devoted a large part of his speech to corruption, promised to take stern action against the corrupt but also added that there was 'no magic wand' to shoo away graft and greed.

Any impact that this might have made was washed away early next morning when, in one of its most maladroit acts, the government arrested Anna and hauled him to jail. Spontaneous protests erupted all over the country. The government panicked and compounded its original folly by virtually surrendering to the civic society leader, who seems to be acquiring iconic status. That said, I must hasten to add that Anna Hazare and his team are not faultless. On the contrary, they are being unacceptably obdurate, demanding that the Lokpal (Ombudsman) Bill the government has introduced in Parliament must be withdrawn and only their heavily flawed Jan (People's) Lokpal Bill be adopted and that, too, by August 30.

There is no need to be too expansive about the dismal domestic crisis, except to say that, as I write, support for Anna Hazare, not only in New Delhi but also in all India's major and minor cities and towns, is growing steadily. Rattled by this, the government is seeking a compromise with the crusading leader but has not yet made any headway. If uncertainty continues, prospects are grim. The Anna agitation might get out of hand or the government may revert to repression. Either way, disaster would follow.

With the ground shaking under its feet, the government would no longer be able to act out on the world stage the role it has been playing so far. At successive G-20 meetings the contribution of Dr Singh has attracted high praise. What can a beleaguered prime minister do when the G-20 meets next to discuss the growing economic and financial crisis in the United States and Europe? Less than a year ago, on a visit to Delhi, President Barack Obama described the ties between India and the United States as the 'defining relationship' of the century. But now it has been somewhat eroded because of India's nuclear liability law, which the US does not like; the exclusion of American firms from the list of those eligible to supply India with 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft; and New Delhi's reluctance to open up more sectors of the Indian economy to American firms.

As if this were not enough, the Anna agitation has become a source of more friction between the world's most populous and powerful democracies. A junior US state department official, in reply to one particular question, made a gratuitous statement to the effect that, as a democratic country, India should respect Anna's rights to agitate. The background to this remark was the government's declared intention to subject him to harsh and unconstitutional restrictions. Inevitably, it invited a sharp rebuke from India, warning the US not to 'interfere' in its internal affairs.

Then something even worse happened. In pursuance of the Congress party's policy of vilifying and discrediting Anna and his campaign, a party spokesman went so far as to accuse the US of promoting the agitation. Washington was not amused. Anyway, this is something that can be sorted out over time. The real problem is that the worsening domestic situation has placed Manmohan Singh's government in a state of disability with regard to furthering its diplomatic aims and objectives.

Dialogue with Pakistan is one area where difficulties can be particularly acute. There is not much domestic support for Dr Singh's policy to remain engaged in a comprehensive dialogue with its western neighbour. The lukewarm response of Islamabad is also of little help. But, to his credit, Dr Singh has stuck to his policy so far.

What happens next is uncertain. This is so because the present Pakistani government refuses to even acknowledge that the Prime Minister and the then Pakistan president, General Pervez Musharraf, worked out, through back channels, a four-point agreement on Kashmir that would have made the Line of Control 'irrelevant'. Room for manoeuvre in this regard is becoming more and more limited.

Utter instability in Nepal will impinge on Indian interests heavily. But here again, a government in trouble at home cannot do much under present circumstances. Mercifully, the Chinese have not yet tried to fish in Nepal's troubled waters at India's expense.

So far, India has managed to keep its relations with Sri Lanka on an even keel. It is helping the island republic to resettle and rehabilitate the Tamil minority who lost home and hearth during the ethnic civil war, and has not pressed Colombo on the issue of war crimes that the UN and the international community have unearthed. But if the Central government is seen to be weak, it would come under greater pressure from the state government in Tamil Nadu to be tough with Sri Lanka over the latter's treatment of its Tamil population.

In this generally disheartening picture, Bangladesh is a bright spot. Relations with it, all too often fraught in the past, have blossomed since Sheikh Hasina of the Awami League came to power. The two countries are together celebrating the 150th anniversary of the birth of Nobel Laureate poet Rabindranath Tagore, who had the distinction of writing the national anthems of both countries. Sheikh Hasina graciously deported to India leaders of insurgencies in its northeast regions who had been enjoying sanctuary and succour in Bangladesh for years. For its part, India has extended to Bangladesh a credit line of $1 billion and other concessions. When Dr Singh goes there, a historic agreement will be signed. It would finally settle the border between the two countries, an issue that has been postponed since 1974.

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