asianaffairs

The impact of terror

A recent US State Department report concludes that South Asia continues to be a focal point for global terrorism, writes Shyam Bhatia.

By Shyam Bhatia

AT RISK: According to the report, Tajikistan's Rasht Valley remains vulnerable to attacks

South Asia remains at the heart of global concerns about international terrorism, according to experts in the US State Department, who have produced their annual Country report on Terrorism for 2010.

Despite the death of Osama bin Laden, the resilience of his al-Qa'eda (AQ) organisation and its collaboration with Afghan and Pakistan-based militants, such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan and the Haqqani network, means the terrorist threat in South Asia remains extremely high.

Americans and soldiers from other NATO countries serving in Afghanistan are inevitable targets for terrorist attacks, but so is a country like India, where 'sustained violence in Kashmir over a six-month period and attempted infiltrations from across the Line of Control remain serious concerns for the Indian government,' the report explains.

The report also notes terrorist attacks in other Asian countries such as the Philippines and Indonesia — and even China — but nothing compares to South Asia. Only Russia, with its terrorist attacks linked to instability in the North Caucusus, comes close.

In 2010 suicide bombings carried out by two women from Dagestan at two Moscow Metro stations killed 40 and wounded another 100. Russian officials have cited some 529 terrorist attack s in which 218 victims were killed and another 536 injured.

The State Department observes that 'South Asia continued to experience violence in 2010, as terrorists expanded their operations and networks across the region and beyond. In response, the United States worked to increase counterterrorism co-operation with its partners in South Asia, Pakistan remained a critical front. Portions of Pakistani territory remained a safe haven for extremists, including high level al-Qa'eda leaders.

'Groups such as the Taliban's Quetta Shura and the Haqqani Network used western Pakistan to plan attacks against American interests in Afghanistan. Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) continued using Pakistan's tribal belt to plan attacks against the Government of Pakistan and its citizens. Moreover, TTP diversified its target set by seeking to attack the US directly, as demonstrated by its support for the attempted Times Square bombing in May 2010. In other parts of Pakistan, groups such as Lashkar-e-Tayyiba remained a threat to the stability of the region and beyond.'

It is the State Department's continuing focus on al-Qa'eda that is significant because it matches the concerns of other independent analysts. It was a British-based terrorism specialist, Rohan Gunaratna, who estimated back in 2002 that about one fifth of al-Qa'eda's organisational strength was in Asia overall. Gunaratna noted that 'their leaders are handpicked, mostly educated in the Middle East, speak Arabic unlike the vast majority of Asian Muslims, and were already of a radical bent. Al-Qaeda's Asian core is handpicked from several hundred jihadi volunteers who fought in Afghanistan, including, inter alia, Central Asians, Chinese, Pakistanis, Bangladeshis, Indonesians, Malaysians, Singaporeans and Filipinos.'

Elsewhere in South Asia, the report notes how there were no terrorist incidents in Sri Lanka in 2010 following the 2009 defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), but there were worries that the LTTE's international network of financial support might be still functioning.

Elsewhere in South Asia, Afghanistan experienced a more aggressive and active Taliban-led insurgency with support from affiliated extremist organisations, including the Haqqani Network and Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin.

'India continued to be severely impacted by terrorism,' according to the report. 'Though there were no attacks on the scale of the 2008 Mumbai assault, India suffered a significant number of lower-level terrorist incidents. In response, India has sought not only to improve its own counterterrorism capabilities, but also to improve its coordination with the United States, the international community, and regional partners.

'Bangladesh earns high praise from the State Department because of its new willingness to collaborate with international and regional counter-terrorism cooperation in 2010.

Bangladesh is becoming a positive regional example for its forward-leaning stance and willingness to cooperate both bilaterally and multilaterally,' the report says.

In Central Asia, says the report, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan experienced no terrorist attacks, but Tajikistan's Rasht Valley remained vulnerable to attacks, and Kyrgystan's political turbulence made it vulnerable to ethnic unrest. 'As the chair of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Kazakhstan promoted tolerance through an international conference, although its neighbours used the threat of extremism to maintain restrictive laws on civil liberties, religious expression, and the press.'

In conclusion the report looks at what it calls al-Qa'eda affiliates. It lists among them the TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan), which stands accused of providing support to a US citizen of Pakistani origin, Faisal Shahzad, who tried to carry out a car bombing in New York's Times Square in May 2010.

Al-Qa'eda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has become a major player in the kidnapping and ransom business. 'No group has made a bigger name for itself in the kidnapping for ransom business,' notes The State Department, 'but it is not an existential threat to governments in the region.'

Another affiliate, al-Qa'eda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) failed to blow up several US-bound airplanes by shipping bombs that were intended to detonate in their cargo holds.

One of AQAP's most interesting sideshows is the creation of al-Qae'da's first ever English-language magazine called Inspire. Western analysts describe the magazine — first produced in July 2010 — as focusing on the aspiring jihadist. Its intended readers are young British and American readers who are provided with translated messages from bin Laden. Articles published in the second issue in October 2010 encourage supporters to open fire at a Washington DC restaurant, or use a lorry to mow down civilians.

Although the magazine failed to arouse sustained interest from the Western media, says the State Department, 'it provided a platform for dual US-Yemeni citizen Anwar al-Aulaki who emerged as an operational and ideological leader in AQAP.'

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